Thread: STT or MTT
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Old 05-06-2005, 13:33
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Re: STT or MTT

Here's Doc's reply, as it hasn't appeared yet on new server...


I think you're mad!

against two random hands (and we have to assume they are stronger than random here to raise and reraise) you have only a 48% chance of winning with AJs. They also have position on you!

If we assume that the first raiser had a Group 4 or better (a la Sklansky) hand, and the re-raiser had a group 3 or better, then your chance is down to 23%.

Quite honestly if you call from this position, early in a tournament - you're a fool. You'll find yourself out of the tournament way more often than you win the showdown. You can't have real confidence in any flop except a flush in your suit, or a KQT (or something like trip Aces or trip Jacks). If you really want to play, I'd think an all-in here would be better than a call. At least that way you have a decent chance of scaring out someting like JJ (65% favourite against you) or TT (a 55% favourite heads up against you) on a "squeeze play". Like Ken says, you can wait and find a much better time to put your chips in the pot.

Re what I said being simplistic - of course it is - but these are guidelines. When you understand the game, and in particular the principles behind the guidelines, then you can start to be creative.
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