I've got my fingers in a few tasty pies so it's been a while but I may as do one. Lets
AMPS EYE
Conference
The bet of the day in this section is Morecambe at home to Southport. They played the reverse fixture last week and Morecambe spanked them 3-0 away. Short odds on aren't everyones thing but seeing as I'd agree with
Corals quote of 2/7 if I wasn't so over commited this week I'd be tempted for a large one at
bet365's 4/9.
Quick analysis (as many matches to cover). Southport rock bottom, haven't scored in 6 games (including an FA cup tie) which they lost. They haven't won since Oct 7th and I gather some players have left the newly promoted side.
Morecambe fourth, dependable and have filled AMP's war chest throughout the season. Few freak results but this is their home form:
3 Morecambe 10 8 1 1 23 6 +17 25
Against Southport's away:
22 Southport 10 1 1 8 5 18 -13 4
A mirror image almost. Morecambe conceed very little at home and Southport couldn't score in one of the bars off Koh San Road.
I've very rarely bet HT/FT over the last two seasons and when I do I invariably get rogered like the aforementioned Bangkok denizens. However,
Bet365 have an amazing market up for this and I've availed myself of the -1 @ a nice 2.0 for 3 points.
What else floats my boat hupothetically in this league?
Well, Burton do actually. 3/2/1 their last 6. I considered backing them on Saturday (when they got an away win at Kiddeminster). They played opponents Tamworth a few weeks back and drew 1-1 away. Recently burton have been on the up and their home form is excellent, winning 5 from 6 of their last league games and drawing the other. Is evens available? Let's check...
Nah, its not there. Some nice previews of the games / links here:
http://www.confguide.com/
A word of warning for those thinking of backing Hereford against FGR. I'm looking to back FGR soon as they're in good form and their recent signing, Striker Guy Madjo from Bristol City scored twice at the weekend and they could be overpriced in games to come.
Conference North
As I posted earlier I backed Moor Green as soon as the odds came out to repeat their recent 1-0 win against troubled Redditch. Moor green have had a great festive period, underlined by their recent 2-0 away win to Worksop. 3/2/1 last 6 games. Redditch are the reverse 1/2/3 with players leaving due to financial diffuculties. I've had 5 points on this one.
What else? Nuneaton should do hednesford but I won't touch that for less than even and 4/5 is the best around.
There's a major price discrepency on Stafford away to Worcester.
The normally generous
Stan James go 10/11, 365 evens and
sky bet 6/5
Stafford went joint top after beating favourites Northwich 2-0 last game whilst Stafford were getting spanked 4-0 away to hyde, making in 0 wins in 4.
Worcester are 18th and one thing that stops me piling in heavy into this oneas 6/5 is a joke (I'd tend to agree with
Stan James on this one) is that Stafford played them at home on Boxing day and were matched in a 1-1 draw.
3 points on the away for me as the odds are too generous.
For forums / links
http://www.confboard.com/north.mpl
Conference South
Thanks to Bishop for pointing out Eastliegh's troubles. They're another clun that have hit financial difficulties. This comes from a "player" posting on their forum:
I've just read the club statement and cannot believe what it said. The facts are the gaffer was told two weeks ago to cut the budget by £1000. That is why there is no Neville Roache, no Tyronne Bowers, no Barry Mason, no replacement goal keeper. The gaffer asked us if we would all chip in some money to make up the difference. What is going on at this club is not right.
They played todays opponents Basingstoke at home on Boxing day (their last game) and got spanked 3-0. lost their last four. As Eastleigh's star has waned so Basingstoke's aided by some new signings has risen. 3 wins on the trot including last time at home against 2nd place Havant (I think Havant's Rocky Baptiste was sent off in that one though - quick aside he is banned today).
I've taken 5 points @ 1.8 with
Skybet for this one.
Another two teams replaying recent fixtures are Farnboro and Maidenhead. In the home tie Farnborough won 3-1 and apparently it should've been a lot more but 2-0 up at HT the game was apparently never in doubt.
Maidenhead stung me at the weekend as they battled well to a 3-3 win away to Eastbourne. However, they again conceeded three goals and their form is:
22 Maidenhead United 6 0 2 4 7 23 -16
Compared to Farnboro's
6 Farnborough Town 6 3 1 2 10 7 +3
Maidenhead are missing a couple of players through suspension for this one also.
Again, divided opinion on this one but
Stan James go 10/11 and Sky 11/10. i've had 4 points with Sky.
Anymore in the "sexy" south?
I liked Yeading to do the double over Hayes in their home rematch having beaten them 1-0 away last week. I've just examined the Yeltz's home form and it's non too impressive though and it makes me shun the appetizing 6/5 on offer.
I've just talked myself into 2 points on St Albans at Bishop Storford as I feel the 6/5 on them is too high. This game sees 18th entertain 3rd and they met on Boxing day with St. A's beeing 3 goals to the good winners. St A's have had a few dodgy results of late but they do seem quite capable of going away and scoring a few goals. they've only failed to score once in all league games this season and are 45 goals to 20 games - an impressive return.
Just the two points for me on that one.
Right, this has taken longer than expected so I'll be back later with some picks from the lower levels...
AMP