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Some great points...
Hopefully I'm not being biased here....but you know how it is
Belarus v Scotland
Bel : 1-3-1 10:7 4th [HF] WD
Sco : 1-2-2 3:4 5th [AF] DL
Yet another crucial game for the Scots, who have given themselves renewed hopes for gaining second place in the group with the recent 2-0 home win over Moldova.
Lets start by stating one thing I believe is crucial to this game: The prospect of an away game to Belarus offers Scotland the far more comfortable situation of being underdogs. When installed as favourites, as they were against Moldova, and charged with breaking down a stubborn, defensively minded team, Scotland usually struggle(results against the Faroe Islands in recent years are good evidence of this.)
Belarus on the other hand will be keen to win in order to draw them level in the group with Norway and Slovenia in 2nd, allowing Scotland the opportunity to be the more defensively minded side on Wednesday night.
Regarding this defensive aspect, Scotland are a useful side, conceding just 4 goals in 5 games, less than Italy, Slovenia, Belarus and Moldova in the Group 5, and 1 more than Norway. David Weir at the centre of defence has come on leaps and bounds with Everton this season, while Pressley, Webster and Gordon of Hearts are all looking a lot more comfortable on the international stage. Walter Smith and a couple of players have stated this week their determination to win, however I believe secretely that a point will still be viewed as a good result, and so the defence could well be key for this game.
That is the good news, while the team news is a much different story. There were a handful of injuries for Saturday, and McCann, McNamara and Hartley(suspension) have added their names to the absentee list since then. Further doubts remain over others who are expected to play anyway, with Walter Smith down to a bare 18 players(starting 11 plus 7 subs) and so there is little point pretending that the squad is anywhere near its peak.
My guess of the side would be:
...............Gordon
Alexander...Weir...Pressley...Caldwell
.............Dailly...............
.....Fletcher.....Ferguson....McFadden
........K Miller....McCulloch.....
McFadden and McCulloch could be switched about there, but after strong performances after coming on as subs I'd expect Dailly and McFadden to be given the nod. Caldwell looks likely to fill the hole left by McNamara at left back, and while I'd prefer to see either Lee Miller or Riordan, Smith could well keep faith with Kenny Miller up front. There's also a chance Webster might be included if Smith adopts an ultra defensive approach.
Again, I'm not particularly clued up on Belarus, but perhaps their greatest danger Maxim Romaschenko is missing through injury. Belkevich and Hleb however offer a huge creative danger, and man marking could well be the way to go tomorrow night. Belarus were sluggish against Slovenia at the weekend, and 1-1 represents a poor result given that 2nd place is there for the taking in this group.
So a few concluding thoughts...
Its not worth pretending that Scotland are a great footballing side, nor that they are as good as Belarus, nor that they are anywhere near favourites for 2nd place. They do however, have renewed hope after Saturday, a very good defensive record(often masked by a poor return up front) and atleast on the face of it an impressively positive attitude for the game.
As abject as Satuday was, this game represents a fixture well designed to draw out Scotland's battling qualities, and the question could then be how well Belarus respond to a tight, scrappy physical affair, cos we'll love it!
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Some vague %ages...
Belarus - Draw - Scotland
47% - 30% - 23%
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Fixed odds Betting:
They say every selection has its price, and while Belarus are worthy favourites, Scotland's price has drifted far too far on
Betfair. £1,500 has been traded at a whopping 4.80, so if you can get matched there I think thats good value. The Bookmakers have far more sensible prices. Goes without saying that that would be a small stakes punt.
To clarify: Value at 2.25 was available earlier in the week on Belarus, but with that having been gobbled up I think the Scotland price has been pushed out too far by some over eager layers.
Other Betting...
Under 2.5 looks the pick tomorrow night. See the mentions of the Scotland defence, as well as Belarus missing their main goalscoring threat, and 1.65 and upwards is value for me.
1.67 available at
Victor Chandler, and 1.70 at
Betfair.
Best of Luck All...
CCCCMMMMMMOOOOOOONNNNNNN SCOTLAND!!!!
