Thread: STT or MTT
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Old 08-06-2005, 14:05
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Re: STT or MTT

Christianu

someone betting $1 into a $6 pot is showing no strength and is giving odds on someone to draw out on him. Even with the nuts you wouldn't slow-play it like this, given that the flop has been checked. He is telling you he has something, or maybe he is making a weak bluff at the pot.
It doesn't matter what cards you have here, you HAVE to raise him. He doesn't know what you have - you might have pocket 6's for all he knows, or top pair with a weak kicker.

Consider what can happen:

1) You raise and he re-raises
2) You raise and he calls
3) You raise and he folds

we can more or less discount (1), as it would be a very odd play to make, and unless it was a very large-reraise you'd possibly still have pot odds to draw
as for (3) you take the money ($7)
If we take (2) you know that you will make your hand (the nuts) 8/46 times - approx 17%. Those times you will make AT LEAST $11 for your $5 bet.
Additionally, if he is betting on a pair lower than tens, you will draw out on him by pairing one of your hole cards 6/46 times - 13%

So about 30% of the time you are making a profit of $11, or an average 'expected profit' of $3.30. 70% you lose your $5, i.e. an expected loss of $3.50. So in net terms, just on him calling (and neglecting any extra bets you might win) you expect to lose $0.20 on the call.

BUT, you would expect to make more than this with the times you bully him out of the pot. Every time you bet and he calls you lose 20c, every time you bet and he folds you win $7. Even if he only folds 3% of the time, look what happens:
97% of the time you lose 20c, 3% of the time you win $7
That is 19.7c lost and 21c gained, i.e. you win 1.3c every time you make this play.

In reality I'd expect to see him fold 90% of the time here.
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