Going to play the outrights in Dubai.
So far have had an e/w winner in Auckland with Ancic at 10/1
(not that it made me a profit). Had Stepanek on the outrights in Rotterdam but of course forgot to post so hope to keep up a good run.
Winners / Losers to date (1/2)
Start Bank 200 Units
Current Bank 197.50 Units
Dubai Open
This is a hardcourt event with one of the biggest purses outside the Slams and Masters that has been owned by the peerless Federer in the last three years. He has won the last 3
. Even as short as 1.70 very hard to see past him again given his blistering start to the year and his great record here. Going to go for a value e/w in the other ½ of the draw and a little back to lay.
A number of the seeds making comebacks from injury (Nadal) and layoffs (Agassi & Safin). Stepanek is coming of a great win in a weakened Rotterdam Masters.
All in all I think there might be a bit of value in some of the outsiders given that some of the seeds have question marks over them
Seeded Players
1.Roger Federer
2.Rafael Nadal
3.Nikolay Davydenko
4.Andre Agassi
5.David Ferrer
6. Dominick Hrbaty Mario Ancic
6.Olivier Rochus
7.Radek Stepanek
8.Thomas Bedrych
Previous Winners Taking Part
Roger Federer (2005. 2004,2003) ; Fabrice Santoro (2002 & 1993)
1st Quarter Draw
Federer and Berdych the seeds. A very weak quarter with two no hoper local qualifiers. Christophe Rochus fresh from a final drubbing in Rotterdam might cause Berdych some problems but hard to look beyond Federer to make the semis.
Federer and Berdych for quarter finals
2nd Quarter Draw
Easily the toughest quarter. Davydenko and Hrbaty the seeds but Safin makes a comeback against Davydenko and Hrbaty faces a very tough opener against Youznhy who has beaten him in three from four. Any one of the four could realistically make the semis here. Davydenko looked very tired in Rotterdam and this could be a long slog for whoever gets to the semis. Hrbaty’s form is mixed and even if Youznhy’s form is poor he has a great head to head record against Hrabty and a good tournament record here (QF’05 and SF’04). Inclined at 200/1
on the Big Blue as against 60/1 for Hrbaty to think him the value shout here. Safin has a poor recent record here and must be rusty not having played since August. Santoro and Ollie Rochus muddy the waters further. The
Racing Post love Santoro in desert tours but he has done nothing here for a while and will be focused on the doubles. Rochus has no form here and a terrible record in the heat and while he always gives 100% I don’t think he wil get out of the quarter.
For back and lay value I’m going with Youznhy. Davydenko should have enough to get the other quarter.
3rd Quarter Draw
Ferrer and Agassi the seeds. Agassi went out tamely in Delray Beach to journeyman Garcia Lopez and I’d have to wonder if he is 100% fit. He made the semis here in ’05 on his previous outing where the Fed Express rolled over him. With a 8-2 H to H over first round opponent Rusedski he should get warmed up with a win but a second round game with potentially the solid Nieminen will be tricky. Ferrer is a weak seed and Schuellter might give him some problems with a good record here and some signs of recovery. Ferrer and Agassi should make it out but too many questions over both of them to make them outright shouts for me.
Ferrer and Agassi for the quarters
4th Quarter Draw
Nadal and Stepanek the seeds. The latter is in form but doesn’t do well in the heat and the overreaction to his Rotterdam win make him much too short for me at low 20s. A tough opener for Henman against ’04 finalist Lopez. Lopez is in dire form. Henman is marginally better form and can see him off. Henman actually makes some appeal for me here. I think he can see off Lopez and he has beaten Stepanek on 4 of their 6 meetings (although he lost the last two). Maybe an 80/1 shot but not a 150/1 shot that I got matched on
Betfair. Hate saying it but Henman for value here. Nadal might be rusty but he has an easy start against Mathieu and he should be able to see off the winner of El Anouyani and Moodie to set up his quarter final berth.
Nadal and Henman
.
Conclusions
Very hard to look beyond Federer for at least a semi berth. At 1.67 I’ll be avoiding however. The second quarter is very tough. Am inclined to go for a value back of Youznhy here and hope to lay off. Agassi might get out of the third quarter but he’s given up a lot of years to a lot of players here and as mentioned the lay off makes me swerve. Going to go with Nadal in the bottom quarter although I’ve injury concerns.
3.5 Points Nadal e/w @ 6.6 (Betfair)
0.25 Points E/w Henman @ 150 (Betfair) (still 110s available)
0.25 Points E/w Youznhy @ 200 (Betfair) (still 90s available)
1 Point E/w Davydenko @ 25 (Betfair)