[Beanie]

I've only really gotten into tennis betting in this last year, but its been fairly obvious(even to casual observers) that Federer has been awesome.

I don't think he's prone to slipping up to a nobody/also-ran(like Hewitt did v Karlovic a few years ago), nor just a huge server, as he's shown he can deal with that, so that just leaves him to deal with those with a bit of class.

Lets look at the top 10 seeds...(there are others like Stepanek who could pose a few problems, but only on a Federer off day)

1. FEDERER, Roger (SUI)
2. RODDICK, Andy (USA)
3. HEWITT, Lleyton (AUS)
4. NADAL, Rafael (ESP)
5. SAFIN, Marat (RUS)
6. HENMAN, Tim (GBR)
7. CANAS, Guillermo (ARG)
8. DAVYDENKO, Nikolay (RUS)
9. GROSJEAN, Sebastien (FRA)
10. ANCIC, Mario (CRO)

Federer can make mincemeat of most of them on grass...take a player like Henman - he simply doesn't have a clever enough serve/volley game to trouble Federer who can pass Henman all day. Safin on his day has the potential, but his form/termperament is a bit too erratic to place money on. Can't see Nadal being any sort of opposition to Fed on grass. Hewitt has struggled v Federer in recent years, and his form at Queens (pushed hard by Malisse and knocked out by Karlovic) suggests he hasn't recaptured his No.1 form by any means.

That leaves Roddick really - but he is another who just hasn't been able to touch Federer in the last couple of years. He wasn't bad winning Queens, and will have the desire, but it would still require a huge improvement in Roddicks game. Further, if we consider Roddick to be the danger, it would be better waiting till the final to lay Federer when his odds would be far smaller.

So I think its best to take the idea of laying Federer on a game to game basis, rather than just for the tournament. Lets say he runs up against Karlovic - that might then offer a lay prospect, as it is within Karlovic's abilities to maybe squeeze atleast 3 of 5 sets to TB's, and then he would just need to win them. No easy task, and he's usually out of a set if he is broken, but he is serving very well just now (something like 24-0 in the ace count v Ljubicic today.)

Laying Federer could be profitable(at the very least losses will be small) but I would take it on a game to game basis.