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Originally Posted by crowie
Good stuff Seen, thats the sort of stats I look for each year in the National, does rule out a large % of the field.
Whats your view on the lack of French bred winners?
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Not too sure to be honest, been reading the opinions on the Attheraces site and the guy on there says this about them....
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Remarkably, a French-bred has not won the Grand National since 1909. True, it is only very recently they have attacked the race in any great numbers and four French-breds have finished second in the last ten years but they have represented over 25% of the total runners in the last five seasons without any success and the principal reason for their collective failures is their inability to stay. No less than 14 of last season's 40-strong field were of Gallic descent but only one could finish in the first half-dozen. The previous year only Clan Royal of their 11 starters completed the race whilst all 12 French-breds in 2003 finished unplaced.
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He sites their failures as being a lack of stamina, which has logical reasoning. CLAN ROYAL being an ideal example, pulls too hard then runs out of fuel after looking the likely winner.
My stats narrowed the field down to 14 (I analysed the top 50 in the weights), which is too many, so adding the no-French-breds rule this lot is trimmed down to a more manageable 7.
BF odds / best bookies odds / horse
18.5 - 16/1 - SIR REMBRANDT
42.0 - 25/1 - SILVER BIRCH
100.0 - 40/1 - EBONY LIGHT
380.0 - 66/1 - BALLYCASSIDY
21.0 - 25/1 - GARVIVONNIAN
310.0 - 100/1 - TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN
26.0 - 20/1 - ROSS COMM
I'm backing them all, cos if I leave just one out the damn thing is sure to win. Wouldn't it be nice for one of the huge priced ones to win
