[GETT1NLOTS]

Everton vs Birmingham
Everton are definately over priced here. They have a good second half of the season record at home, whilst Birmingham have only beaten Sunderland and West Brom away all season in comparison.

Two things worry me about backing Everton.

a) Birmingham have had credible away draws against Liverpool and Wigan since the turn of February. So they are capable of nicking a draw.

b) Birmingham play a little bit like Everton. 100 miles an hour up and at them football. Everton prefer playing teams like Fulham, Arsenal and Man City who all try and play football.

Despite a) and b) though Birmingham's season long rubbish away from home cannot be ignored. With a record of 2-4-11 on their travels there is no way Everton can be 2.34 at home. As usual the trend is that most punters see this as a 'must win' game for Birmingham and that Everton will capitulate as they have nothing to play for. The stats however don't back this theory up as having any bearing on the result of games over the last 20+ years. Because too much money has been placed on Birmingham the price on Everton is artificially high and this makes a bet on the home win a value play with a draw saver to be considered as a contingency.

Selections

Everton @ 2.34 (Betfair) - 2 points
Everton - draw saver - @ 3.45 (Betfair) - 0.60 points