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My view for the Greek Cup final.
As mentioned is a single game at neutral venue.
Olympiakos - AEK
Olympiakos are first in the table and the Champions for the season. In the previous round they eliminated Larisa with two wins 3-1 and 1-0 away. They come from a loss away 3-2 to Levadiakos, in a game they were unmotivated whereas the game was crucial for the home team. A team with good offensive line. They will play with 4-3-3 formation. Olympiakos beat AEK 2 times this season, 3-1 away in a balanced game with 2 late goals, and 3-0 at home in a game they were the better side. The Cup is a target of the team, and they are motivated for the double this season. Also this was the statement of coach Solid. This weekend Olympiakos face Ionikos at home, in a game the fans and the board hope to celebrate the double. In this game they will miss Rivaldo that missed the previous games as well, and also regular Pantos (D). Influential regular Djorjevits will play after an injury. On the contrary influential regular Toure (M) returns in the team.
AEK are 2nd in the table, and the big favourites for a Champions League spot. For this to happen they need a draw, or a win, this weekend at home vs Xanthi. In the previous round they eliminated Agrotikos Asteras, a Third Division team, with good chances of promotion anyway. AEK come from an important away win vs Kalamaria, against an unmotivated opponent anyway. 1 day before the Cup final coach Santos announced he will leave the team at the end of the season. Santos came to AEK, for second time, last year in a difficult time for the team, as AEK had big financial problems. Still the last two seasons with him as a coach were succesfull for the team as last year they finished close 3rd, and this season they will probably earn a Champions League spot. Still he hasn't win a title with the team. Probably the players want to play for their coach as well in this game. A team with good defense usually, however in the games vs Olympiakos this season their defense was not succesfull against Olympiakos good offensive line. AEK will play with 4-3-3 formation in this game. Influential regular Liberopoulos (F), will play in this game, but he comes from an injury and is not completely fit.
Past results
This season Olympiakos - AEK 3-0, AEK - Olympiakos 1-3
2005 Olympiakos - AEK 0-0, AEK - Olympiakos 1-1,
Olympiakos - AEK 0-1 (Cup), AEK - Olympiakos 0-1 (Cup)
2004 Olympiakos - AEK 0-1, AEK - Olympiakos 0-1
2003 Olympiakos - AEK 1-2, AEK - Olympiakos 1-1
2002 AEK - Olympiakos 2-1 (Cup Final).
Olympiakos have won the Cup 21 times, whereas AEK 13 times.
A hard call as a Cup final between two very important teams in Greek football. A close game is expected that will be decided in the details. Olympiakos beat AEK two times this season but this is a different game. Both teams are motivated for the Cup. AEK looks in better form, still Olympiakos play better at the derbies this season. Rivaldo absence is important for Olympiakos, and also key factor for the game will be the situation of the key players for both teams, Liberopoulos and Djorjevic that come from injuries. Also its difficult to evaluate the effects of AEK coach anouncement he will leave the team at the end of the season. Both teams will play with 4-3-3 formation, so a game mainly in the midfield is expected. So the game is a possible under, still AEK defense faced some difficulties vs Olympiakos this season, and also Olympiakos defense is not in very good form. Olympiakos are the favourites, still the game is open to every result, and the value at these odds is on AEK. Extra time is possible in this game.
My bet will be AEK +0.25 now in the Asian, 2.23 at Pointbet, stakes 3/10.
GL2A