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Re: Luck and MTTs
Luck plays a big part in Mutlis. Even if you are a very good player you can play tonnes of multis and get nowhere.
Say you're in a multi with 300 people, assuming everyone was equal you'd each have a 0.33% chance of winning it. OK but imagine you are three times as good as everyone in it. Instead of a 0.33% chance you now have a 1% chance. You'll now win the tournament once every 100 times instead of once every 300 on AVERAGE. That's still alot of times you won't win ! Plus it's an average figure, you could of course go many hundreds without winning one. Multis are nice that when you do win them the prize is usually quite beefcake. But you usually need more than your fair share of luck to manage this. Of course the more skillful player will do better long term than the numpty but you gotta have a long time before that kinda thing will even itself out. Tournament strategy is important to winning these things. As the tournament is bigger you have more decisions to make , hence you have to consistently make the right decisions to give yourself the best chance.
If your aim at poker is to purely make cash , cash tables are what you want to be playing but only if you are comfortable with them. If not, play single table tournaments. Personally I would suggest playing multis now and then but view them as "extra", you can't consistently place in the top 5 of multis with over a couple hundred of entrants no matter how good you are.
If you play well every now and then you'll get a beefcake pay day, with a few smaller ones mixed in as well when you are 10th etc.
Getting outdrawn in a multi can be utterly devastating. The difference in prize places can be huge. I remember being heads up in a multi with huge blinds, I pick up AJ so that's an all in straight away - I was called with QK and outdrawn and hence came 2nd. Not exactly a bad beat but still a huge difference in prize and I got the chips in ahead, but that's all you can do.
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