[fasteddy]

Morocco vs Nigeria : home win

I consider this game to be a lot closer than the prices and marks on offer.
While watching what i thought was a very poor, very scrappy match between Nigeria and Holland, I made a mental note to oppose the eventual winners next time out : Nigeria it is then

Nigeria may have some wonderfully talented individuals , but as a team they don't appear to select the pass/shot that is for the common good...usually it is a selfish, glory seeking decision.
This may seem a bit harsh on the team as a whole, but that attitude is only apparent because at some level in the management structure it is seen as acceptable.

For me, this set of players is going to be vulnerable up against a well organised 'collective' , such as Morocco. Although Holland were similar in this respect, and lost, I don't think they played to their potential and they were drawn into a very nervy affair. Nigeria have great trickery on the ball, but it was mostly all show, and no results.

Morocco have played consistently well since their opening day 3-1 loss to Spain. In hindsight it may have been the best start for them: a wake up call early on.
Next game saw them put 5 past Honduras, then they rounded off the Group stages with a well controlled 1-0 over Chile.
It's a fantastic achievement for the squad and they will gain a huge amount of confidence, energy and momentum for this match.
A key factor is their keeper, Bourkadi. If he has a good game then it will be very hard for Nigeria to beat him.
Smacking in hopeful strikes from all angles and distances , as they did v. Holland, won't bother him much.
Punting long, high balls inot the box shouldn't reall be a major threat either: Nigeria looked pretty average with their 'heads'...in more way than one!

Discussing the relative strengths of the individuals isn't of importance to me in these games. It's all about how the TEAM responds: how they gel in the face of adversity OR on the edge of history.
I will always back against the Nigerian's to bounce back if they are under pressure.

Morocco have to get on the board first, and then they will be able to control the game more. But, even if they fall behind, I'd fancy them more to fight for the equaliser.

They met each other back in January, with 2-2 being the end result and Nigeria winning it on penalties.
It could easily go that way again.

An interesting note is that Nigeria are the worst offenders for fouls, with 109 so far. Morocco are not tha far behind with 99. However, Morocco have suffered the greatest amount of fouls with 110.
You can read into these stats that Morocco get into more dangerous areas and force the foul, in which case they should have an edge in free kicks OR you can say that Nigeria allow teams into pressuring them, plus they are less disciplined and put pressure on themselves.

Either way, I'm reading it as a 'positive' for this bet.

I'm very tempted by the odds of 4.00 on a Moroccan win, but I'll be smarter here, and take all the advantages I can get.

Morocco +1 goal @ 1.70 for 6pts (nb: this isn't asian handicap odds)

(I'm keeping the stakes a bit lower due to the unpredictability factor of how they will react to being so close to the finals)