Cheers WAS.
I don't need to blow my own trumpet but last season was the first real season I really stepped it up (i.e going from a semi-fun acculminator (sp?) to serious singles). I remember one week I was devastated that I lost $200 on FA cup qualifiying games. The next week I made it back. The week after I was in significant profit. I didn't keep monthly records, only week to week but overall I showed a healthy profit. Unfortunately I put the profit into outrights and I think you know I'm still in dispute with an online bookmaker for my $2,500 winnings. Anyway, moving on.
The way I saw it at the time was that if Henry or Rooney broke a toenail, the whole nation knows about it. However, if a non-league team has it's star striker out (and perhaps three others - I seem to remember the situation at Dunstable when Shipupstreets or Deets put everybody onto a squad walk out) the odds will stay the same. At non-league level one player can make the team.
My personal favourite last year was the FA competitions (Vase, Trophy and FA Cup qualifying). The odds on these competitons were very slack. I emailed
Bet 365 yesterday and they confirmed that they'll be covering the Vase from the 2nd round proper (November) and the Trophy and FA Cup from the start. I find this hard to believe but I've mailed them twice and they've said the same thing.
This is the biggest problem with the non-league scene - there are only a few bookies who have markets.
However, this year I've decided that I'll be concentrating on the Nationwide South, and probably the Unibond again. I've already had a big single and two "savers" on the Conf South (which I know you don't like WAS but I think Weymouth will walk it and Lewes and Cambridge at about 12.0 and 15.0 are good E/W bets) which sets the scene and for me generates an immediate interest.
The Conference South is really the lowest level you can go to be well covered. By this I mean you get HT / FT without calling the clubhouse (something I've done many times) by going to the Sky Sports website. Conf South also has major bookie representation. Last season I was using mainly
Bet 365, Sky and
Stan James so sometimes there were quite significant odds discrepencies.
For me I always follow a kind of system. Statistics, opinion, gut-feel and mixed in there is an analysis of the teams chances with the odds available (that often mis-overused term "value").
The thing about the PL posters that you mentioned (and I can think of others such as nonleague himself and toshibakid) is that thet actually go to see the games and as with many things primary information (as long as it's unbiased - now I'm remembering Mid Devon Punter's write ups, which were also good) is a valuable tool. However, you'll find if you take the time there's enough forums and club sites out there to take an opinion on a lot of "obscure" (dare I say it) games. I do dare, because in the end I can bet on it and make money. If there's 75,000 or 75 and a dog I don't really care, show me the money!
I'm really loking forward to the new season.
AMP