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Re: Niche
Crowie,
Just a few personal observations of my own which perhaps is no more than food for thought arising from some of the points raised by yourself and AMP.
Bear in mind that one important feature of my strategy in selecting bets is too search out why a team may not perform to their potential. This invariably means analysing team changes through injury or suspension or conversley why a side form may improve when their better players return from such.
Anyway I did post up quite a detailed review of my seasons bets on PL a few months ago. I can't quote now the precise figures but the sample involved over 300 bets and the general conclusions were
a). I made a healthy profit on Premier League, CCC, Champions League and La Liga matches
b) A small profit was returned from CC1 games
c) A definite loss occured in CC2, Carling Cup and LDV games (except for an anti post on Wrexham before the semi)
d) a acceptable (but not large) profit was returned in non league games.
Arising from my research I have came up with some theories
The one thing us punters may find difficult to measure is the commitment of certain teams in the early rounds of the "Mickey Mouse" Cups. Perhaps they are best avoided altogether.
A team in CC2 may have absent 4/5 regulars but because the entire playing staff are mediocre they may not be missed as much as a Premiership side will miss its stars. The lower league fringe players may generally be young and enthusiastic and the opponents who lack real quality may find it more difficult to take advantage. My bets may have failed accordingly because I expected the team with players missing to be weakened but I overestimated the position
Although the world and its wife have information about the teams at the top of the tree we can still seek out value.
This is partly because most bookmakers price up early in the week and we get the best information by Friday evening on the injury front. Get in at that point with your bets as the bookmakers generally only react to the weight of money on Saturday morning
I believe that most sides in the top divisions will miss the better players more so than further down the league. I know some will say that that shouldn't matter because they have bigger squads but I think the real point is that the other teams are better able to take advantage of the absence of the stars
Plus how often have the likes of Newcastle, Liverpool Sunderland West Ham etc been priced up on the basis of past reputation.
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