After ummming and ahhing all night, I don't think there's much that sticks out for tomorrow. Roddick is blowing so hot and cold he is impossible to read - he looked brilliant and hopeless in the same match v Grosjean, so who can tell which one will turn up tomorrow.
Likewise, the other is tricky to read. Hewitt has been looking good, but that fact remains that Federer is better than Hewitt in almost every part of the game, and so if we take a Hewitt strength(lets say returning), we can see that Federer is even better. Not only that, but in the last 7 meetings between the two, Federer has won every single one. For all Hewitt's mental toughness, if he goes down in the first set, it will only be human of him to begin to think 'Here we go again.'
So staying out of the outright and handicap markets, maybe there is still a few bets that look good.
Lets try:
Hewitt - More Aces v Federer
Its a matchup of two strong returners, and two decent servers. Neither stands out, and the stats back that up.
Hewitt has played a total of 175 games, hitting 74 aces and allowing 42 aces.
Federer has played a total of 160 aces, hitting 60 and allowing just 17.
Of course, what stands out there is that Federer has allowed a lot less, but it needs to be considered that the majority of Hewitt's allowed aces came against big serving opposition in Taylor Dent and Justin Gimelstob. Taking those two away, and the averages are very similar.
Federer has been serving well throughout the tournament, while Hewitt upped his game in the Quarter Final. I expect further improvement from the Aussie, as he will know he will have to be bang in form with his first serves if he is to have any chance.
This one could go either way, but as I rate it perhaps a 50-50 chance, maybe leaning slightly towards Federer, I see no reason for the odds to be so high for Hewitt on
Betfair.
1pt @ 2.90 on
Betfair.
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Wimbledon Record So Far: 50pts staked / 54.5pts returned
