Thread: Bubble play
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Old 10-01-2007, 02:28
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Re: Bubble play

You speak some real crap Doc. 77 really is a fold there right on the bubble with a playable stack. Im well suprised you think thats a call on the bubble.
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you'll win more than he will if you call here.
Its not a cash game. You dont win the tournament if you win the hand.

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Even if I had seen that he had AK here, I'd call
Accepting a near 50% chance of no payout isnt exactly great tournament strategy Doc. Youd call if you know he has AK what a load of pish. Lets put our tourny life on the line knowing your in a coinflip! What great play that is!

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He has a lower pair - you're over 80% favourite
He has two higher cards - you're a 51% favourite
He has a higher and a lower card (e.g. A5) - you're over 2-1 favourite
He has a higher card plus a 6 or a seven - ditto
He has a 6 or a 7 plus a lower card (e.g. 76s) - you're over 7-1 favourite to win
He has two lower cards (v. unlikely admittedly, but far from impossible) - you're 5-1 favourite to win
Leaving out ALL possibility of an overpair, why?? You include the underpairs and overpairs is just as likely as that. Overpair is also more likely scenario than the bottom 2 categories. And dont start saying blah blah theres 69 different combinations of low cards etc (a pure guess at an amount I have no idea how many there are) it doesnt work like that. In all honesty, I dont think its going to be a 7 high hand moving all in on the bubble. Whats by far the most likely scenario A LOT of the time here....

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He has two higher cards - you're a 51% favourite
There it is, woopdifcukingdoo a 1% edge. Praise the lord!

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at the moment you're likely to be on the way out!
Why? 14th out of 21 stacks isnt so bad at all. Its hardly correct to say it looks like bubbling is the most likely scenario if you fold when 1/3 of the players have a smaller stack than you?
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There are 28 of 1225 hands that are beating you. Your hand is in the top 10% of hands heads up.
Youve got to take into account the situation, you sound like some kind of poker bot reeling off stats.





IT IS IN TOP 10% OF HANDS....I PUT VILLAIN ON 16% CHANCE...OF 65s OR BELOW....IF NOT I STILL MAINTAIN A 0.8% EDGE - I CALL WITH GUSTO
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