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If you call, then 57% of the time your estimated finishing position is about 7th (about 8 buy-ins) and 43% of the time it is 0. So folding, is on average worth 3 buyins, while calling is worth (8*0.57+0*0.43)=4.56 buy-ins. So the benefit to calling is over 1.5 buy-ins compared to folding! That is why I think calling has merit.
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This is only true if you dont believe in your ability to get your money in good with better spots at another time. I could equally say something like I think I can get in with 65% the best of it at some point in the next level, conjecture yes but I believe it to be the case. So does your 43% of the time folding = 0 still carry any weight whatsoever if I believe something like that? There is also the scenario I might not even have a showdown etc etc. If the tournament began and ended with this 1 HAND in the resulting manner that you describe, then I would call but there is still yet more poker to be played....
For the record as its relevant to what I just said I dont believe just cos im in this current stack position it means im going to finish that place on average in reference to this comment
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If you fold you're estimated finishing position is about 15th
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I believe in my ability to finish higher personally. Now if you considered yourself to be a poor player amongst the opposition, would you call? Yes is the answer to that.
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I think we're finding common ground here - it is a call for you at 5BB, but not at 20. So in between we have a transition where it may be call? I guess it is just a question of degree and preference here.
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Of course. Ive been talking from the perspective of a non short stack throughout the thread (I count a shortstack as LESS thasn 10bb), I believe you were also as I think you said something about 10-20bb somewhere.
It is obvious there is a stage at which this turns into a call. Im not sure what that is though but I know I would definitely be calling with 5bb left but definitely not at 10bb.