Overs/Unders betting remains a bit of a melon scratcher for me, so I've been having a bash at a few spreadsheets which attempt to predict the fair odds for goals betting.
One of the more promising from the modest amount of backtesting i've done is one which calculates weighted averages of goals scored and conceded both home and away for the season(weighted to place greater emphasis on more recent matches, and only including home stats for the home teams and away for the visiting sides), as well as a weighted average of goals involved in encounters between the two teams over the past 2 seasons(weighted to place greater emphasis on more recent matches), and takes a weighted average of all these factors(placing greater emphasis on both the historical games and the goals conceded stats) to produce a no. of goals prediction and hopefully, eventually, calculated fair odds.
The theory behind it all(goals conceded stats being more important than goals scored stats) can wait for another day.
It's not the most mathematically or theoretically robust model, and could probably do with a bit of tweaking and further testing, but lets give it a run this weekend.
I've only got the sheet set up for the SPL but could easily do more on it, although sticking all the data in would take the best part of a couple of hours for one of the English leagues so I'll swerve that until I have more time.
Also, at the moment ive not quite got the odds generation sorted - need to play about with that a bit, so I'll just go with the recomendations it gives based on odds available. Without further ado...
Two sets - one level stakes(2pts for all bets mentioned), one with bigger bets for bigger perceived edge and vice versa(1pts, 2pts and 3pts). Goal lines are 2.5 unless otherwise stated.
Dundee U v Dunfermline...
No Bet
Falkirk v Killie...3pts
Over @ 2.07 with
10bet
Hibs v Motherwell...3pts
Over @ 1.80 with
Interwetten
Rangers v Hearts...3pts
Under @ 1.88 with
Pinnacle
St Mirren v Aberdeen...1pt
Under @ 1.75(only 3Bwin offering this, but
Betfair should oblige at 1.79 which will be equivalent odds of just over 1.75 after commission)
Caley v Celtic...2pts
Under @ 2.11 with
10bet
This is very much just a paper trial at the moment - not one to put your hard earned on.