[A.M.P]

Originally Posted by kompressaur

I know how Farnborough feels bromsgrove. Does anyone want to rent a non league forum?

You'd have to make it worth my while Komp and I'd still feel like this:



Still, as this week has seen little price changes in my picks (all the attention is on Farnbrough and Wemouth who I've opposed for modest amounts) and I've finally got some time on my hands I'll share my picks with you gratis. Well, in exchange for letting me have a link to my website I suppose

GL to all Non-Leaguers this weekend. I agree Quandram that Woking are overpriced.

Here's my tips for today.

Gloucester to beat Northwood @ 2.37 (Various)

Match-up:

http://www.nonleaguegambler.com/matc...FixtureID=2802

A few weeks back Gloucester were in play-off form as they rekindled their excellent form from the end of last season. However, they've just been thrashed by Bath and beaten by Hemel at home so confidence is considerably lower these days.

Gloucester's home form is pretty shocking - they're 18th in the home table but their away form is pretty decent with 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats. Their defense has to take the brunt of the blame for their recent form as they've conceeded 17 goals in their last 6 matches. Manager Tim Harris has signed a defender from Worcester to try and patch up their leaky defennse.

Northwood also have a problem keeping the ball out of their net. Following a severe financial crises some of their key players have left and they have lost 4 out of their last 5 and gained a draw at equally poor Wealdstone.

2.37 seems a great price for this encounter and if Gloucester can put in the same kind of performance they did at Kings Lynn back in December they'll come away with the points.

It's worth noting that snow caused Northwood's midweek game to be postponed. 3 points for me, weather permitting...

Staines to beat Folkestone @ 2.0 (Skybet)

Match-up:

http://www.nonleaguegambler.com/matc...FixtureID=2327

As I reported earlier in the season Folkestone had some financial difficulties and had to let their top wage earners go. They've won one game since November 25th at off-form Harrow. Folkestone have lost 7 out of their 12 away games and will go into this one missing one of their main strikers - Abel - through injury.

Staines have under-performed in this league for a year or so. Once they were a genuine force but now they are mid-table mediocrity. However, what put me on to this bet was a fantastic performance at Carshalton. They hammered them 4-0 away last weekend and fan reports say they really wanted it.

If you look at the stats you'll see that Staines have come through a tough series of matches recently. They have the one loss to a strong Ramsgate side but they have a number of creditable draws.

Infact the draw is definitely somethign to be afraid of in this one as they have drawn an amazing seven times at home in the league! Still, in this game I think they'll win at a nice price. Folkestone fans say that their fight for survival will depend on taking points from those around them in the table and they are dubious about being able to achieve that.

2.0 looks a bit high so I've no concerns at risking 3 points.

Kings Lynn to beat Yate @ 1.9 (Coral)

Match-up:

http://www.nonleaguegambler.com/matc...FixtureID=2798

Kings lynn looked in danger of walking away with this league early season. Then came a distracting (but profitable) FA Cup, the loss of their manager to Peterborough and a few injuries. The net result is that they have won twice in the last 8 games. At the moment they are struggling for consistency as they had two very good wins at Chippenham and Rugby but then failed to assert themselves on Clevedon at home in a lacklustre display. They then lost to improving Team Bath by an injury time goal.

So why back them against Yate who have decent away form? Well, Yate have a number of key injuries and will have to re-organise their defense for this one:

Manager Richard Thompson, however, faces a tall order if he is to bring his side home with a point or three, no thanks to a string of absentees.
Centre-backs Lee Jefferies and Steve Jenkins are out, as are Jason Wood, who injured his knee in the midweek defeat by Cheltenham, and Paul Chenoweth. Dave Elsey and Scott Brice look like forming the central defensive pairing, with youngster Lee Bridson and veteran campaigner Mike Wyatt taking the full-back berths.
New signing, striker Justin Pritchard, and experienced midfielder Gary Owers, who enjoyed an impressive second-half run-out against Cheltenham, should be involved, possibly from the start.
Admitted Thompson: "Going to King's Lynn, with all their supporters and a five-hour journey, is hard enough as it is without having half your team missing!
"It's one of those weekends you just have to try and get through and as ever, we'll be giving it our best shot."

So that's bad news for Yate.

In analysing this bet I thought of various stakes but Yate's away form and miserly defense on the road is unsettling. However that defense will have to change now. Kings Lynn have been making noises about bringing in a striker as they have fired four blanks from their last 8 but so far nothing's been confirmed.

I personally wouldn't touch this at some of the quotes I've seen like 1.72 but the 1.9 that Coral are offering isn't a bad price given Yate's injuries.

I will keep the stake on the low side and risk 3 points.

Leek to beat Mossley @ 2.2 (Skybet / Stan James)

Match-up:

http://www.nonleaguegambler.com/matc...FixtureID=3278

Towards the end of last season Leek suffered a financial crisis and the after-effects have sadly hampered the one-time title contenders this season. Following a number of bad results the manager was replaced a couple of months back and it seemed that little change in form was brought about.

However, 5 games ago they won 5-1 at Ferriby. I thought maybe it was a fluke and automatically assumed a player was sent off but this was not the case and Leek simply outplayed Ferriby. The next game also saw an improved performance at home to Kendal. They dominated the game by accounts and missed a penalty before going down 1-0. After that was perhaps one of the Unibond's performances of the season beating Witton 4-3 away from home. Next came the new boss' first home win and the double against Ferriby. In their last match they held Marine away to a 1-1 draw, the hosts "salvaging" a draw with an 80th minute equaliser.

It seems the new Boss has brought in a number of players to stop the rot.

Squad looks strong
Leek Town manager Paul Moore’s team building plans appear to be paying dividend as his side continues to battle against relegation.

Moore has signed no fewer than 16 new players during his short spell in charge and now he has a selection headache trying to keep all his players happy.

The latest news for Saturday is:

Blues expect to be at full strength for the game although there is some doubt over Sam Wood who is recovering from an ankle injury.

Mossley are capable of the odd good performance as I pointed out in the voided tip last week against Gateshead. However, they have lost 7 out of their last 8 league games.

Given Leek's upturn in form I'd place this match as a couple of firms do at 2.0. For me then the 2.2 offers a nice premium to fair value.

Burscough to beat Matlock Town @ 2.1 (Various)

Match-up:

http://www.nonleaguegambler.com/matc...FixtureID=3282

Due to the English weather Burscough haven't played in the league for around 3 weeks so I hope they can shake off the cobwebs and get a result here.

As you can see both teams are in good form as they look to further place themselves inside the play-off zone. Burscough have 9 wins, a draw and two losses from their last 12 games. They have lost just once at home and won 8 from 12 (66.7%). Matlock are now 9 games unbeaten in all competitions.

However, their last performance away at Ashton did little to impress me. After taking the lead the hosts had their keeper sent off and their manager went in goal. Despite this Matlock could only equalise in the 80th minute. Matlock seem to be able to hammer the poorer teams in this league but have lost to Telford, Hednesford, Burscough and Marine suggesting they struggle with the real "powerhouses" in this league.

Burscough have also beat Matlock in the Lancs cup this season so they aren't the Gladiators favourite opposition.

I was interested in this bet before I read some interesting articles about team news:

Brown and managerial colleague Gareth Williams will be forced into changes for the trip to Victoria Park as both Paul Riley and Steve Circuit are missing through work commitments.

Richard Taylor could come in as a straight swap for Riley at left back, while an option would be to push Glenn Kirkwood into Circuit's central midfield slot, and allowing either Liam Howley or Dave McNicholas to return to the defence.

Ryan Davis will require a fitness check on a hip injury, so both Howley and McNicholas could yet feature this weekend.

Brown hinted that if striker Steve Taylor has a successful training session tonight (Thursday), he might be in contention for a return to the squad at Burscough, in which the managers might also include themselves plus young Spencer Goff.

Burscough is not the kind of place you want to go to when you're understrength. I would be happy with a price of evens and above for this game so I'm happy to stake 3pts on Burscough here.

And that's it. See you all around.