28 days to go
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It might seem a bit early but I aim to get to this tournament as prepared as possible. Whereas I seem to be on the ball with test matches up to a week before the start I sometimes feel a little undercooked with ODIs as they can rush up on you.
I'm going to go into this as detailed as I can but all observations & comments are more than welcome, be they from regulars or the uninitiated, no matter how silly they might sound (thats you ODM
)
Depending on how popular & busy the thread gets this might eventually become a pre-tourney thread with seperate threads for the groups, super-8's & so on.
I honestly believe that theres money to be made in this trophy, more than I'd normally expect from ODIs, for a variety of different reasons.
Format
Trying to find this written down seems to be a disaster zone so I've just spent a few hours looking at various stuff & this is what I've come up with:
There are 4 groups of teams, broken down like this:
Group A
Australia, Netherlands, Scotland, South Africa
Group B
Bangladesh, Bermuda, India, Sri Lanka
Group C
Canada, England, Kenya, New Zealand
Group D
Ireland, Pakistan, West Indies, Zimbabwe
......each team plays 3 group games & the top 2 from each group progress to the Super-8s. Each team then plays 6 games against the teams that have qualified that were not from their original group, ie if England & New Zealand qualify from Group C they dont meet in the Super-8's but presumably can then meet in the semis. This is in the form of a league table & the semis are found from 1 vs 4 & 2 vs 3.
Clear as mud ??
Fine, then if anybody understands this bit please let me know
Team names for the Super Eight stage are indicative based on the top two teams from the Group Stage qualifying. If these two teams do qualify they will be seeded in position 1 or 2 as specified regardless of whether they finish first or second in their group. For example, if South Africa wins Group A and Australia comes second, for the purposes of the Super Eights, South Africa will still be A2 and Australia will be A1. If, for example, Scotland qualifies instead of Australia, Scotland will become A1
This is taken from the following link:
http://www.icc-cricket.com/icc/event.../schedule.html
Now, I did start to think that there wasnt a great deal of advantage in finishing 1st or 2nd in the group due to the original seedings taking preference (I think
) but the more I look at it the more I think there is an edge even though a league system means there shouldnt be.
Grounds
There are 12 grounds being used including the warm up matches:
3Ws Oval
Warm-up matches
|
Arnos Vale stadium in St. Vincent
Capacity: 12,000 seats, Warm-up Matches
|
Trelawny Stadium
Capacity: 25,000 Seats, Warm-up matches
|
Sir Frank Worrell Memorial Ground
Warm-up matches
|
Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, Antigua
Capacity: 20,000 of which 10,000 will be permanent
|
Kensington Oval, Barbados
Capacity: 32,000
|
Queens Park, Grenada
Capacity: 20,000 with the addition of temporary stands
|
Providence Stadium, Guyana
Capacity: 20,000
|
Sabina Park, Jamaica
Capacity: 30,000
|
Warner Park Stadium, St Kitts and Nevis
Capacity: 10,000 with the addition of temporary stands
|
Beausejour Stadium, St Lucia
Capacity: 20,000 with the addition of temporary stands
|
Queens Park Oval, Trinidad and Tobago
Capacity: 25,000
|
Each of the grounds has undertaken a massive redevelopement or is brand spanking new. What has this got to do with gambling on the tournament ?? Plenty
Each 1st round group is based at 1 venue where all of the games are played:
Group A - Warner Park
Group B - Queens Park Oval
Group C - Beausejour, St.Lucia
Group D - Sabina Park
All of these grounds are established venues, except possibly Warner Park which has a very good reputation but has only hosted 1 ODI prior to the WC. Beausejour opened in 2002 & has 8 ODIs to its name & some decent scores, & is highly regarded enough that it has also been awarded a semi-final. Queens Park & Sabina Park are historic old venues that have undergone extensive facelifts, but Queens Park for one is behind schedule & the organisers are panicking. I think its more to do with the stands & surrounds tbh rather than the playing surface but it doesnt sound good. Theres a lot of cliches being trotted out about it being the Caribbean (maaan) & they'll only finish just before the 1st match, but theres definetly a bit of worrying going on.
Its difficult to see much in the way of upsets in the 1st round although England & NZ shouldnt take Kenya lightly at all, & before Englands resurgence & raised confidence in the Tri-Series that could have been a potential banana skin, & I have a hunch NZ need to be awake for that game as well. A while back you'd have said WIs need to watch themselves against Ireland but I cant see it at home, & theyre not the disaster waiting to happen they quite were, but theres plenty of time to discuss these games.
In essence its a tournament of 2 halves with the semis & final tagged on the end, with the 1st round being tune up games.
It really starts hotting up in the Super-8's round where the 4 venues are virtually brand new, with the exception of Bridgetown & even that has had massive redevelopement:
Sir Viv Richards Stadium, Antigua - brand new
National Stadium/Queens Park, Grenada - hosted 8 ODIs but none since virtually destroyed by a hurricane in 2004 & basically rebuilt from scratch
Providence Stadium, Guyana - brand new
Bridgetown, Barbados - famous old venue massively rebuilt, also hosting a semi
These grounds have obviously been picked due to the fact that their off-pitch facilities are superior as theyre brand new, but the point is are the playing surfaces up to it ?? Any cricketer/groundsman will tell you that it takes time for a cricket square to bed in, & that can take a few years never mind months. Witness Hampshires Rose Bowl, excellent state of the art facilities (bar the fact theres only 1 road in & out
) but the pitch played up & down the first few seasons. Yes the WIs should know what theyre doing here but the fact theyve got the ICC pitches co-ordinator Andy atkinson in town shows that their not overly confident.
Only last week I read a piece stating that the Antigua square (Sir Viv) has undulations on the pitches & they were fretting on what to do. The same piece stated that the Providence Stadium pitches were poorly seeded & had taken badly & were behind schedule....all this could have large consequences on teams chances in my eyes.
Therefore, with each team having 6 'Super-8' games theyve obviously got disproportionate numbers of games at certain venues. Taking the seedings & going from the confusing paragraph from that link above, this should work out like this (assuming theres no 1st round upsets, & remember according to that as long as the seeds qualify it doesnt matter whether they win the group or not....bizarre
):
A1 - Australia - Antigua x 3, Grenada x 2, Barbados x1
A2 - South Africa - Grenada x 2, Barbados x 1, Guyana x 3
B1 - Sri Lanka - Antigua x 1, Grenada x 3, Guyana x 2
B2 - India - Antigua x 2, Barbados x 3, Guyana x 1
C1 - New Zealand - Antigua x 2, Grenada x 3, Guyana x 1
C2 - England - Antigua x 2, Barbados x 3, Guyana x 1
D1 - Pakistan - Grenada x 1, Barbados x 2, Guyana x 3
D2 - West Indies - Antigua x 2, Grenada x 1, Barbados x 2, Guyana x 1
Will this make a difference ?? I think it could. In a nutshell I think we could get a situation where teams have been scoring big runs in 1st round matches & then they come into the second stage, on new wickets which are potentially not up to scratch, & we're into medium pacers heaven & low scores with up & down bounce. So going on this proviso, everybodys favourites Australia have to play 3 games on a brand new ground that could be playing inconsistently....it doesnt mean they'll lose of course, but it does mean it could be a leveller playing field. England on the other hand have half of their games on the well established Barbados wickets. Hmmmm.......
I'm not suggesting either that these games will be the 1st time these wickets will have been bowled on (although that could well be the case) but we're talking the best bowlers in the world here who will use these things to their advantage & drag out every edge they can.
Another point in all this is that these grounds are allocated fixtures in blocks of day on, day off & all games have a reserve day throughout the tournament. This is throughout the entire tournament & not just the Super-8's, & the only breaks that I can find are monday march 26th, thursday april 5th & friday april 6th. The only definite free day is the 6th as its Good Friday but the other 2 are reserve days so there might still be play on them yet.
Each ground has 6 games per block, so the groudsman is up against it if rain starts getting involved as its entirely feasible to see reserve days being used & cricket on 4 days on the trot before a particular match. Ideally he'd use 1 track per 2 games but I'd guess it might be be more like 2 tracks per block, each lasting 3 games. Therefore certainly the last game that each track is used (ie games 3 & 6 in each cycle if I'm right) could well be worth looking at as potential low scoring affairs where the wickets either gone slow & low or its doing handstands. You have to take into account that grounds in the WIs tend to be smallish so runs will come on good wickets with fast outfields, but the potential is there.
I think the entire thing is organised with rose tinted glasses on & the potential for low scores in certain matches is certainly there, as is the money making opportunities
Outright Odds
These are
Stan James' odds tonight:
Sri Lanka are available at 8's elsewhere which I think is a cracking price & the reasons for that I'll go into another time (theres 28 days yet ffs
) but its got a lot to do with the fact that theyre an excellent one day side & theyre playing their 1st round games at Trinidad which is generally accepted as the most spin conducive Caribbean ground. Theyve also got only 1 game at Antigua although thats offset by 2 in Grenada.
Australia have lengthened after losing to England this weekend but I certainly dont think its the one horse race the odds would have you believe. I wouldnt be in a rush to back them at that price as they didnt look the same without Symonds whos not guaranteed to make it, & Gilchrist misses the 1st round matches so to be able to pick him they need to pick 2 keepers in the 15 man squad announced tomorrow. We'll soon know but it could be said that is arrogant & overconfident, which was a major cause to them losing vs England in the Tri-Nations final. Also they dont look as though theyre picking Stuart Clark which I think would be a real mistake as he'd be a real handful on these pitches particularly if my hunch on the new grounds is right.
SA look strong & they have the advantage if things go to plan of not having to play Australia in the Super-8's, which if the odds are right is a massive advantage indeed. Their bowling should be well suited to these conditions & with all rounders of the calibre of Boucher & Pollock they need to looked at.
West Indies cant be ruled out at home but they'd have to be on top of their game throughout & what worries me is that Gayle was awesome in the Champions Trophy & its rare it happens twice on the trot.
Pakistan bat deep & can win easily on any given day. Asif will be a handful on these wickets but they fear Akhtars out with injury & it could well depend on whether they can back Asif up as the current SA tour shows they cant at the moment.
I dont particularly fancy India at all as theyre quite old & poor in the field & fielding will be important on these quick outfields. New Zealand need to keep Bond fit & theyve been trying that for 5 years now & never succeeded so its difficult to see him playing game in, game out.....if any of the big guns are to fall in the 1st round my money would be on Kenya knocking the Black Caps out. All doesnt seem well with NZ with Flemings captaincy being questioned & Astles sudden retirement hinting at possible trouble. Normally I'd back their all rounders but I guess the Chappell Hadlee trophy starting friday against a depleted Australia will say a lot.
And that brings me to England
How do you predict a team that plumbs the depths of 110 & 120 all out & then 10 days later wins 4 on the bounce including 3 vs the world champions
They played good cricket in those 4 games & Collingwoods confidence must be sky high. Bells last few innings have been of a higher tempo more suited to one dayers & hes set the pace of late. Strauss needs a good series & it would be harsh to drop Joyce but it looks like he'd go in place of Vaughan. England need Vaughans captaincy but they need runs from him as well otherwise its a false pick. England will go in with confidence high & that shouldnt be discounted as St.Lucia will suit them as will Barbados in the second stage.
The time to back England has probably long gone. Before their astonishing turnaround they were available @ 220 to back on
Betfair, & 18/1 generally. The British bookies are running scared after the weekend but although I'd love to see it I'm not sure theyre a good thing although the 9's available at
Blue Square &
Paddy Power looks tempting. My feeling would be that there was a togetherness to the finals side which will be broken by the return of people like KP. Hes world class & has to play but hes the kind of player that I'm not sure whether he'd have engendered the same atmosphere with him as without him. When McGrath fractured his rib he had little choice but to leave but hes the kind of insular character who probably felt his stock would rise by not being involved in the approaching 'slaughter'. Also Vaughan is in the same bracket as Shane Bond & anyone who thinks he'll play every match is living in cloud cuckoo land.
One thought always comes back to me about England: In 458 ODIs theyve scored 82 tons although 3 have come in the last 4 games. Yet Gooch & Gower still stand at numbers 2 & 3 in the list, but the leader is the much missed in this form of the game, Trescothick with 12 tons.......against that the team India fielded last week had 84 tons between those 11 players
Englands confidence is high though & they shouldnt be discounted, you could see that in the fielding at the weekend
Much more to come on this, but if I lose this post I'm going to be very grumpy
& this thread has all the makings of either a tour de force or a very lonely, solitary journey
