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Old 15-07-2005, 23:29
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Re: Swoopers International Surgery, System & Stats......

Player Series Wickets
England vs Australia - (Test Series) - AF Giles Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 12 5/6 Bet
Add 12 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - GD McGrath Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 23 5/6 Bet
Add 23 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - SJ Harmison Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 19 1/1 Bet
Add 19 & Over 8/11 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - SK Warne Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 24 5/6 Bet
Add 24 & Over 5/6 Bet

England vs Australia - (Test Series) - SP Jones Book Closes 21 Jul-10:00
Players must start in at least 2 matches.
Add Under 13 5/6 Bet
Add 13 & Over 5/6 Bet

All the above odds are Bet365.

Giles I'm going to look into, but although its only 12 wickets its difficult to tell tbh, its a very shrewd spread IMO. He will qualify for the bet because its inconceivable that he wont play 2 matches. He gets a lot of stick does Giler, unfairly mostly, & he has improved his lot over the years. He is highly rated by the rest of the team but I cant see him getting many wickets, & I think he will be used mainly to try & slow the Aussies down, rather than attacking. No matter what happens, Giles is extremely unlikely to be dropped for another spinner, only a quick, & that is unlikely although Tremlett would play as a 4th seamer in that scenario. I'm tempted by the under 12 wickets, as I can see 2 or 3 innings where he will not bowl at all, but I'll look more into the stats.

Harmison is a tricky one too. If England are to do well you feel Harmy has to take a lot of wickets & be at his best, which would be the over 19 mark, but he is a confidence player, as was shown in South Africa last winter. Granted that was away from home, & his home-sickness problems are well documented, but it still shows how inconsistent he can be. The Aussies know this too, with the final ODI all but won Ponting made a deliberate attack on Harmy to try & shatter his confidence, which worked to the extent his spell was the second worst in ODI history by an englishman by runs conceded, but that will happen. A definite no bet for me.

Jones I wouldnt touch either, if England do well he might not bowl that much but if the Aussies score 500+ then he'd get overs & then wickets. Too tight to call IMO

The 2 Aussies interest me greatly, & I will deal with them seperately:

Glenn McGrath

Knocking on a bit now but still a champion bowler, as was proved by when the tide was pulling Englands way at the start of the ODI's he was the only bowler who didnt go around the park. A class act.....

Overall test record: 109m, 499 wickets, BB 8/24, avg.21.22, E/R 2.49, S/R 51.1, 26x5 wickets, 3x10 wickets

He has taken 117 wickets @ 20.03 v England

In England: 11m, 68 wickets @ 18.27, economy rate is 2.79 & strike rate is 39.1 balls.
Of the 68 wickets in England, 48 @ 14.83 have come in the first innings of tests.
The 11 tests span 2 tours:

1997.
1st: 2-107 off 32, 0-42 off 7. Edgbaston
2nd: 8-38 off 20.3, 1-65 off 20. Lords
3rd: 3-40 off 23.4, 4-46 off 21. Old Trafford
4th: 2-67 off 22, 2-80 off 22. Headingley
5th: 4-71 off 29.5, 3-36 off 13.5. Trent Bridge
6th: 7-76 off21, & 0-33 off 17. Oval

2001.
1st: 3-67 off 17.3, 1-34 off 13. Edgbaston
2nd: 5-54 off 24, 3-60 off 19. Lords
3rd: 5-49 off 18, 0-31 off 11. Trent bridge
4th: 7-76 off 30.2, 1-61 off 16. Headingley
5th: 2-67 off 30, 5-43 off 15.3. Oval

Series total stats:
1997: 249.5ovs, 701runs, 36wickets @ 19.47, E/R 2.8, S/R 41.6
2001: 194.2ovs, 542runs, 32 wickets @ 16.93, E/R 2.78, S/R 36.4

12 were caught behind in 1997, 9 in 2001

McGrath has taken 361 wickets @ 18.85 in a winning cause for Australia.

Looking at his stats, despite his age he has not really reduced his overs in recent years, so he will still be bowling as much as he was in the previous tours. Indeed for a couple of tests he may bowl more if Gillespie doesnt sort out his woes, & the problem is sorted by him improving or being dropped.
An interesting stat may be if he has ever opened with Brett Lee, who will surely play after the ODI's, but I think used to bowl change but hasnt been in the test team for around 18 months, I'll look into that.
Summary of all this is that Bet365 have given a low quote for my money, which will definetly be on 23 or over wickets for Mcgrath in the series. His record backs this up & I have have an indelible minds-eye image of Tresco snicking him behind from over the wicket, feet planted like tree trunks.
The only danger is his age & therefore injuries, but I think he could make this bet missing 1 test tbh, or coming close anyway.

BET S1:1 - GLENN MCGRATH 23 WICKETS IN THE SERIES OR OVER @ 5/6: 20 POINTS STAKED

Last edited by Swooperman : 16-07-2005 at 09:57. Reason: unfinished
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