England
Are England realistic contenders ?? They go into the tournament with confidence as high in one dayers as it has been for a few years, after winning the Tri-Series, so undoubtedly that gives them more of a chance than they had before.
The bookies cant decide, perhaps understandable as the majority of them are English & therefore will take patriotic punts on the England team. Some make them 2nd favourites whilst at least one has them 1/3 to be eliminated in the Super-8's.
Personally I think theyre in better shape than they were, but the spirit engendered at the end of the Aussie tour will be dissipated by the returning players. England are a much better side with Pietersen as hes a world class player, but is the atmosphere better with or without him ?? Theyre a much, much better side with Vaughan as captain, but does it weaken the batting ?? And I'm not actually sure where Jon Lewis fits into this squad
The 3 mentioned are also carrying injuries, so if I'm criticising Australia & Pakistan for gambling on injured players, England must come into that equation too.
I was suprised Mal Loye didnt make the squad tbh, as although he only came in as a replacement he offered something new. What is the order going to be, as Strauss was dropped to 4 in Australia but with the returning Pietersen & the composition of the squad I can now only see him opening....yet hes had a crap run & this means England will open with him & Vaughan, one dodgy form wise & one not certain to last a match never mind all of them & has a crap ODI record to boot !!
I see the team being picked as this assuming full fitness:
Strauss
Vaughan
Bell
Pietersen
Collingwood
Flintoff
Dalrymple
Nixon
Plunkett
Anderson
Panesar
Personally I'd have to pick Joyce but I cant see them doing it unless Vaughan gets injured & theres no way in the world that he'll play every game. It was Joyce who wandered in after the debacles of 110 & 120 all out vs NZ & Australia & scored a ton, & arguably that got England kicking again, together with Colly hitting form & Australia suddenly falling overboard.
After the 2 openers I think the next 4 are set in stone. Bell didnt set the world alight & needs to score bigger but he didnt have a bad tour considering & there has been signs recently of him batting at a decent one day tempo. I think Dalrymples position is his to lose but its not massively secure & Plunkett & Anderson both had decent one day series's with the ball, although if Andersons unfit & Mahmood plays arguably the batting is strengthened. Panesar has to play IMO to provide good line & length although the smaller caribbean grounds might be a worry.
Confidence can go a long way & England will have that & they shouldnt have too many problems qualifying from the 1st stage, although I repeat they shouldnt take Kenya too lightly.
The whole thing revolves around the 1st game though, as if they dont beat NZ they'll enter the 2nd stage with 0 points which will leave them needing to win 4 from 6 to stand a chance of qualifying. On a good day I can see them beating India although there'd be many who'd disagree with me
& then they'd be aiming at Pakistan I suppose. In crunch games I struggle to see them winning any 2 from Australia, SA, SL & WIs at home.
If they can beat NZ in the 1st match then 3 wins from 6 might be enough for the semis & then anything can happen.
From a betting point of view I think the time to back them outright has been & gone & although I think its very open this time around, its hard to see them winning it