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Old 19-05-2005, 12:32
crowie crowie jest offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 3212
Re: Spanish Primera Liga 21st and 22nd May

Some initial thoughts.

4 CL places in La Liga, 2 already sown up and 4 teams to play for the final 2.

A further 2 UEFA Cup spots with only Valancia being really able to challenge the sides above them for a Euro place.

3 go down, 2 already away and its almost certainly between Mallorca and Levante for the final place.


Probably most important game of the day is Levante needing points to stay ahead of Mallorca against a Valencia side chasing a UEFA Cup spot. This is also a local derby.

Levante have been poor for a long time since a good start to the season. Only 3 wins since the middle of November, 26 games in total. However they have been able to pull the odd surprise result out of the bag. A draw last week v Barca and a 2-2 in Seville v Betis in April.

Valencia have been stuffy away from home, only 3 wins all season and 11 without a win away from homei in a row now. However they haven't been getting beat either, only 5 losses away all season, only Barca have a better record.

Valencia's last 4 aways have been draws but they can't really afford one this time.

6 of Levantes last 7 homes have been under including visits from Barca and Real Madrid. They have only scored 6 in their last 8 home games, and 4 of those came in the same match v Osasuna. 5 of the 8 games has seen them draw blank.


Betis are pretty short in their quest for a CL place but you can see why. Only 2 losses at home all season v a Zaragoza side with only 3 away wins. However 2 of those 3 wins came in the last 4 aways including v Betis's city rivals Seville.


One that I might consider laying is Seville at Getafe. Getafe's first season in the top flight will see them end it safely mid table mainly due to an excellent home record. 11 wins from 18 is impressive going for a promoted side. Its also not been a case of them starting off well, like Levante did, and then slipping as the season went on.

At home they haven't lost since the 12th December and if you ignore an opening home loss to Mallorca its only Betis, Villareal and Barca that have left here with wins and they are all top CL challenging sides.

Indeed Betis's 2-0 win was the only time at home they lost by more than a goal. That was also 1 of only 2 games (from 18) where Getafe have failed to score at home.

They have only conceded 3 in their last 10 home games since mid December and its all been to decent sides, a goal each to Real, Athletico Madrid and Depor.

Seville have put up some decent away performances of late winning 3 of their last 4. And they are the side who "needs to win"

I have to say I could be tempted by the following:-

Laying Seville at about the 1.80 price they are on the exchanges.

Looking at Getafe +0.75 on AH, Bet365 currently go 1.90. This may move to +1 if their is a plunge on Seville due to them needing the result.

Straight win on Getafe, currently 5.10 on Betfair

Getafe have been an underated side all season at home and it looks like continuing this weekend.

Some more thoughts later.

Last edited by crowie : 19-05-2005 at 13:00.
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