Trying desperately to stop playing poker and gear up for the new betting season. Tennis has always been pretty good for me but I've neglected it like a red headed child recently
. Hope to remedy that here with some purely mechanical tennis systems in addition to my “normal” bets that are ratings derived. This system is for ATP
System 1: Back all Pre Qualifiers in their Round 1 matches in Non Masters / Slam Events
System
This basically entails a blanket backing of all players who have gone through qualifying matches in their first round matches (except if drawn together) in their first round matches. This means 4 players for most events or 6 players for a few (Barcelona etc). Masters and Grand Slam events are excluded from the system as most direct entry competitors in the main draws tend to be better rested and prepared for the big money events than they might be for smaller events.
Logic Behind System
Players who have played qualifiers have often acclimatized better to conditions in terms of court surface / weather / accommodation. Their opponents (being better players generally to get direct entry) have sometimes arrived only a day before the start if they have been involved in the latter stages of previous tours. As many of the qualifiers especially in the weaker events are journeymen that sometimes slip under the betting radar they can often go of at very tasty odds. This system is especially useful when the higher ranked player that you oppose is changing surface (i.e the move from South American clay to hardcourt), traveling across time zones (going from a US tournament to a European with less than 3 days rest). The benefits of the qualifier being in situ are magnified in such circumstances.
Past Performance of System
In 2003 this returned a very modest profit (under 2%). In 2004 this returned a nice yield of just under 6% to level stakes with nearly 220 bets. These are best bookies odds and the yield would be much better at the exchanges as many of these selections are rank outsiders. This good perfoamnce in past years was aided considerably by huge touches for qualifiers such as Ian Flanagan versus Philipousos (at 10s), Zib vs Henman (at 8s).
In 2005 to the end of March there had been 62 qualifying bets. There were only 23 winners but they returned over 64 Units at just
Bet365 prices (a very small profit). With exchange betting a larger profit would have been made. Big priced winners included Gabashvalli beating Blake at over 4s, Luzack beating Gonzalez at 5s and De Chanuac beating Coria at 5.5. I actually got De Chanuac at 7s on
Betfair.
Problems with System / Alternate Approaches
A blanket backing of qualifiers might be a very blunt mechanism for some games where the qualifier might not be able to beat the opponent but would have a good chance to get a set. For example recently Ivo Minar (backable at 30/1 for the match on
Betfair) took Federer to 3 sets as did Reynolds vs Spadea (both available at 4s), Kohlmann vs Sanguinetti and Lapentti vs Moya. I will in addition to the blanket backing of qualifiers also investigate the laying of strong favorite’s sets 2-0 vs qualifiers. Longish losing runs a strong possibility. One for the long haul.
Staking / Bank
Bank 100 Units / All Stakes to return 2.5 Units post comm. (Betfair) / Max Stake 7.5 Units.
Start Date
This will start proofing with the Croatian Open and the Legg Mason (Washington) Open next Monday 1st August.