[Seen]

A few years ago I tried narrowing the shortlist down by analysing form (going, jumping ability, recent form etc) but found that I was chucking out the winner more often than not.

Now I just go with the stats.

CLOUDY BAYS won on firm ground 5 years ago so does act on it, also would have won a big handicap on good but for unseating. He possibly needs soft ground at 3m to slow the others down, so 4m4f on good should be okay. He's 50/1 so is worth a small bet anyway.