
19-04-2007, 12:47
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Assasin
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 4068
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Re: In search for Holy Grail
Here are the first 5 money managment systems that I'll examine:
1.fixed stakes
Every bet is assigned the same stake size, regardless of the betting odds.
2.fixed profit
Here you standardise the amount he wins for every successful bet.The stake sizes will vary depending on odds.
3.percentage staking
You use percentage of the current betting bank at the time for determining the stake of your bet.
4.martingale
Quote:
Martingale is probably the best known system for money management. Originally designed for use in casinos, this system has nothing to do with picking objects. Martingale is a system which helps you control your stakes. With Martingale, you can be a lousy bettor, but still win money. Please not that Martingale is a system with very high risk of going broke.
The principle of the Martingale system is as follows:
If you lose, you double your stakes, and if you win, you start all over on your starting stake. This means that you eventually will be ensured a profit. Follow this example: You've found a game with odds 2.0 for home victory. You bet 100$, but you lose, as the game ends in a draw. Next time you bet 200$ on a game with odds 2.0. If you lose again, you must bet 400$ on a game with odds=2.0. If you win this time, you've placed a total stake of 100+200+400 =700$, and you've won 100$ for your efforts. The 100$ payoff is equal to what you would've won on your first bet.
Fantastic system, or what ?
Certainly, if you had unlimited funds available. Or if the bookie would drop his maximum bet limit. Or if you have the sufficient cool when you hit a long losing run. Remember, with odds=2.0, you will have to wager 32 times your original stake if you lose 5 times in a row. And losing 5 times in a row is not too difficult with odds 2.0..... And even if you have lost 5 times in a row, you have no greater chance of winning the sixth time. Too many people think they'll have to win soon when they've lost many in a row. The fact is that the chances for a win is just as big (or small if you like) as when you started the betting sequence. Martingale is in other words a very dangerous system, and should be used by punters with large funds and no nerves. In my opinion, Martingale is not a suitable money management system for the average punter due to it's heavy level of progression
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5.row of numbers
Quote:
The German word for this system is "Die Abstreichmetode". This is also a system well known from casinos, and has a lot in common with Martingale (recovering from losses by increasing stakes). But Row of numbers is not as tough as Martingale though. While Martingale can quickly give you your stakes back including a profit, Row of numbers does not repay your losses that quick, but it does not lead to big stakes either (which Martingale does).
Row of numbers gives you more flexibility compared to Martingale because you can adjust your stakes in a more suitable way. The disadvantage is that this system requires more effort from you, as you have to make a row of numbers on a piece of paper and add numbers when you lose, and remove numbers when you win. You need to have better control with your betting, so to say.
Let's have a look at the system:
First decide how much you want to win. E.g 1000 $. Then you have to figure out how long it's going to take to reach your goal. This is the tricky part, because when you win you must remove the first and last number in the row, but when you lose you must add a number to the row.
As a result of this, you must try to decide an average probability for a win, given a fixed odds. If you want to play on games with an average odds of 2.0, set your probability to 40% (or thereabouts). It's better to underestimate rather than overestimate your abilities. If you overestimate your ability, you will have to make up for it by increasing your stakes, and increasing the stakes can easily become rather unpleasant if you hit a losing streak.
If we imagine the 1000$ split into 20 50$ wins, we can calculate how long you will have to bet in order to get a 1000$ total win, given the 40% chance of winning with odds=2.0 (a 50% chance means you're betting even with the bookmaker).
With a 40% chance of predicting the 2.0 object correctly, you will lose 60% of the picks. Thus you lose 50% more often than you win (60/40). In the case of winning, you get to remove 2 numbers on the list (the first and last number). When you lose you must add a number at the end of the list. If we draw this row of numbers, it would look like this:
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Determining your first stake:
As explained above, the first and last number will be removed if you win. 50+50=100. In order to win 100$, you must use a stake which will give you 100$ in net profit. If the odds given is 2.0, you'll have to bet 100$. If the odds is 1.50 you must bet 200$. If the odds is 1.75 you must bet 133,33$. The method of determining the stake is:
Net winning -------------- odds - 1 The stakes for your forthcoming bets can be calculated in the same way. If the first bet is 125$ at odds 1.8, and you lose this bet, you must add 125 at the end of the list. The next bet will then be the first and last number in the row, which now is 50+125, divided by (odds-1).
50+125 -------------- odds - 1You must ofcourse substitute "odds" with the actual odds offered on your object.
If you win, you must remove the first and last number in the row, and then start fresh with 50+50/(odds-1) again.
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