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Byron Nelson Championship.

Donald looks the likely winner on courses he loves
by Jeremy Chapman

PHIL MICKELSON has brought the media circus to Dallas after Monday's announcement that he is teaming up with Tiger Woods's old coach Butch Harmon, but it is the quietly-quietly approach of England's Luke Donald which could win the day in the Byron Nelson Championship.

Played for the final time over two courses, Las Colinas and Cottonwood Valley, this will be the first Nelson without the iconic title-bearer to greet the winner because the great man, whose 18 victories in 1945 will never be beaten, died last autumn, aged 94.

From next year an upgraded Las Colinas will go it alone for the whole 72 holes but for the moment we have the two tricky par-70s, Cottonwood Valley rated one shot easier, which reward players of vision and accuracy.

As the winning score has ranged from ten to 18 under over the past 20 years, only sub-70 shooters need apply for a tournament that began as the Dallas Open back in 1944 with Nelson himself as the first winner.

Donald, the only golfer to have played the last two years and scored all eight rounds in the 60s, loves the place and although his wins-to-runs ratio leaves much to be desired – only one US victory in the last four years – he has the right combination of course form and current well-being to rate a serious each-way bet at 18-1. You get six places with Jennings and all he needs to do is to get the putter working.

That top-ten at Augusta was his fourth of a year that should have already produced one victory, at Waialae, and it is his consistency and sharp iron play that is so attractive on two courses where lack of fire-power will not hamper his chances.

With winds up to 15mph forecast for tomorrow, a good test can be expected and the cream may well come to the top, at least until the weather hots up at the weekend.

Donald's Nelson run of 6-18-14-19 indicates a player guaranteed to give supporters a big run and, after a seemingly unending stream of long-priced shocks on both sides of the Atlantic, a safe haven for our money is all we can hope for.

All types have won this title in recent years, from Woods, Mickelson, Vijay Singh and Sergio Garcia on one side to surprises such as Robert Damron, Ted Purdy and, last year, Brett Wetterich on the other.

One layer, at least, wants to lay Garcia as the lad can't putt for toffee. He has also missed three of his last four cuts there, while both Singh and Lefty also have very mixed records despite being past champions.

So it really is wide open and after Donald, the man I want to be on is young Sean O'Hair, who has ticks in most of the same boxes as Luke – good course record (runner-up to Purdy in 2005, 19th last year) and 14-14-7-15 on his four latest starts, a huge improvement on a desperate start to the year and a player clearly going the right way.
Anthony Kim's fast-finishing third place in New Orleans was his second frame effort in three starts and at only 21 he is clearly the best of the new kids on the block, but I just wonder whether there are not better opportunities elsewhere for this huge hitter. A player who was equally hailed as the new Tiger when he turned pro, Ryan Moore, also caught the eye in Louisiana, is at twice the odds and could be better value at 80-1.

That weekend 11th from 26-year-old Moore, who in 2004 did something Tiger failed to do as an amateur when he won all four of the ones that mattered, followed on from another top-20 at Tampa Bay and the problems of last year when he could make only 22 starts because of hand surgery appear to be past.

He comes to the Nelson with a clean sheet, never having played the event before, but the price is hard to resist.

Wetterich, runner-up to Tiger at Doral, is an underrated champion but defending is always hard while it will also be difficult for Nick Watney to win two weeks in a row. Another of the growing band of 20-somethings with an obvious future, Nick barely put a foot wrong on Sunday but when your nearest challengers are Ken Duke and Scott Gutschewski that is a good deal easier than being last out with two big names.

Although there is a sense of a changing of the guard once you get past Woods and Mickelson, there's plenty of life left in Robert Allenby and Jerry Kelly. Expect to see that pair in the mix.

Allenby has been playing some great stuff with three top-fives and six top-tens from eight strokeplay starts, while Kelly has just posted three consecutive top-tens (including the Masters) and is happy with his switch to a new putter.

Both have some good pieces of Nelson form – Allenby third in 2003 and eighth in 2002, Kelly 11th in 2004 and ninth in 2003 – while there are possibilities about Shaun Micheel, a very steady driver who was top-20 at the weekend and 13th at Las Colinas last year. Chad Campbell, fifth last year, is playing on home territory and could also be a threat.

Recommendations
Luke Donald, 2pts each-way 18-1
Sean O'Hair, 1pt each-way 28-1
Robert Allenby, 1pt each-way 33-1
Ryan Moore, 0.5pt each-way 80-1
Jerry Kelly, 0.5pt each-way 50-1