[Wittmann 44]

Had one wretched short priced winner from 3 bets in the first leg of the UEFA cup last week but it was for big stakes and it might be one worth playing again. I noticed how tight Osasuna have been in the first ½ of their home games both domestically and in Europe to date and backed under 1.5 goals in the first ½. To recap briefly in 8 home European games this season they have yet to be more than 1 in the first half of an Osasun home game. In their 16 homes La Liga games four times have they conceded more than 1 in the first ½ .

There might be a similarly tight performance in this leg. In their 7 European away games Osasuna have only been involved in one game where more than one goal was scored in the first ½. Domestically away from home they have been similarly tight giving up more than one goal only 3 times in 15.

In 32 League games they’ve been involved in 25 games with 1 goal or less. In 15 European games they’ve been involved in only 1 game with more than a solitary goal in the first half. This is one mean defence. Based on those numbers a fair price for less than one goal would be around 1.28 domestically and around 1.08 in Europe. I got 1.38 last week and this week the bet is priced at a whopping 1.49 on Betfair.

I’d add a warning that Seville are second top home scorers in Spain. They have still only been in 4 from 16 home domestic games with more than 1 goal in the first half. Giving an away goal here would probably be fatal to Seville as only Barcelona at home and Madrid away managed more than two against Osasuna you would have to fancy Seville trying to keep it tight in the first half as well.

For the game itself I’ll be cheering Osasuna. They should have had more last week and the farce with the referee killed their momentum in the second half.

4 Points Under 1.5 First half goals @ 1.49 (Betfair)