Thread: Spain 5/6 May
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Old 04-05-2007, 14:11
rcgills rcgills jest offline
Spanish punter
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 8717
Re: Spain 5/6 May

Right, I'll just copy Igor's layout here

Real Sociedad v Barcelona
Think the price on Sociedad is far too big. Barca struggling for goals, and Deco will be a big loss for them. Obviously they still stand a good chance of winning, but I wouldn't touch them with someone else's money @ 1.53. Definitely think I'll be on Sociedad in some form, possibly 1X

Betis - Getafe
Can't argue with Igor's comments. Betis are also on my shortlist

Real Madrid – Sevila
Not sure about a goal fest here, Sevilla have been struggling for goals away from home lately in the league. Having backed Sevilla @ 100/1 e/w for the title pre-season (yes, that's down in writing on this forum somewhere, before I get accused of anything ), I'd love to see them get at least a point here. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced they're going to manage it. Madrid in fine form, and I'd make them favourites, although there is still that nagging voice in my head reminding me that Madrid are overdue another fuck up.

Espanyol - Atletico Madrid
Think Atletico may be playing here just at the right time, Espanyol have nothing to play for in the league and their minds may well be on other things. Will have to check team news though, if I remember rightly both Torres and Leo Franco went off injured last weekend, if they're both out it'll be a blow for Atletico.

Huelva - Bilbao
No idea .

Levante - Gimnástic
Nastic are on my shortlist. As Igor and Kiko have both said, Levante are a poor side, Nastic no better really, but they've had a few impressive results recently, and it's a very nice price on them.

La Coruna - Valencia
Tough one. I'd make Valencia marginal favourites, but don't really think this is one for betting on.

Villarreal - Celta Vigo
I don't trust Celta. The price is tempting me on Villarreal, but I don't like betting on Celta games generally.

Zaragoza - Santander
Agree with Igor that the odds on Zaragoza are terrible. Racing just showing slight signs of a blip, but I still think they're maybe capable of getting a result here.

And in the Segunda:

Albacete v Sporting Gijon
Albacete have drawn 3 in a row, Sporting 4 in a row. Wouldn't rule out another one here, I guess.

CD Alaves v Las Palmas
Both getting sucked deeper and deeper into relegation trouble. Would just about give Alaves the edge, but won't be betting on them.

Hercules v Ciudad de Murcia
Ciudad's season's gone a bit topsy-turvy now they've nothing to play for - they've suddenly started dropping points at home and winning games away. This is a nothing game though, nothing of interest betting wise for me.

Murcia v Lorca
Local derby, this one, will have to have a look and see if I can find out how "friendly" the two sides are. Murcia are promoted, not yet mathematically confirmed but they're 15pts clear of 4th with 7 games left. Lorca 11pts from safety, so desperately need the points. If the two teams are friendly, there's no way I'd be backing Murcia at 1.4 :wasntme

Numancia v Salamanca
Another nothing game

Real Madrid B v Malaga
Tricky one to call, but if you were to put a gun to my head and force me to choose, I'd just about give Malaga the edge - only 1 defeat in their last 6, and that was 1-0 away to Valladolid. Could be tempted on Malaga, although Madrid B are pretty erratic, they're a very frustrating team, but they're well capable of winning this one.

Vecindario v Elche
Vecindario are mathematically down if they lose this, or if they draw and Alaves get at least a draw. Would've given Elche the edge, but a defeat at Lorca at the end of March is slightly off-putting. Depending on team news, I could even be persuaded to think Vecindario may go out with a bang and get a win here.

Almeria v Valladolid
Valladolid already promoted, just playing for the title and to protect their unbeaten record now. Almeria, like Murcia, not mathematically promoted, but there's no way they'll be caught now. Almeria 14-2-1 at home for the season, and that defeat was on the opening day. Odds of around 2.5 look pretty tempting to me, I think they'd be keen to be the ones to take the scalp of Valladolid after such a long unbeaten run, and I think they're one of the few teams in the division capable of doing that. A win would also leave them in with an outside chance of the title (they'd be 8pts behind with 7 games left). However, one of the players I've been most impressed with this season, Acasiete, is out for them, which is a blow. Will have to think on this one, but am interested in Almeria.

Cadiz v Xerez
Another nothing game

Castellon v Poli Ejido
Castellon 7 games unbeaten, 4 straight defeats for Poli Ejido. Neither side completely clear of relegation trouble yet. Unless there's anything bad in the team news, I'll be on Castellon here.

Tenerife v Ponferradina
Just 2 defeats in their last 8 for Tenerife, away to Ciudad de Murcia and home to Valladolid, no shame in either of those. Clear favourites, but I wouldn't want to be backing them at such a short price against a team much more desperate for the points than they are.
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