Another absolutely dire day today
. 2 from 5 with Roddick’s loss causing special carnage. Checking his records he has only suffered two other 6-0 set losses one of which was to Federer. Thought Baghdatis might put me near break even but he squandered 2 break of serves to lose the second set against Djokovic.
Some might stop at this point but its like the charge of the Light Brigade here.
There is one bet tomorrow that is in my view an absolute cracker. That can be taken with a pinch of salt given my week this week but I’l give the game and the details.
Azarenka vs Sibilkova (Prague)
Azarenka junior US and Australian Open champion in 2005 is set to be the next big thing in women’s tennis. The 17 year old Belarussian started her full match quota this year and last week underlined her promise with a run to the finals in Estoril (on clay) beating 4 top 50 opponents before losing a 3 set final to Greta Arn. She started this week on fire again knocking out Sucha in the first round and the 5th seed Dechy (49 in the world) in the last round. She faces Slovkian Sibilkova in the QF a player she has beaten on hardcourt and grass. Azarenkas record at this stage of tournaments is amazing. She is played 16 and won 14 in QF. Only 3 were WTA events but even in the ITF events she has beaten some useful players. She is unbeaten in a quarter final since March 2005 (10 events).
Sibilkova is ranked 75 places below her. She has already played qualifuers here so this will be her 6th match in seven days. Clay is probably her best surface but bar Dulko (who had played a lot of tennis) she has beaten no one of note in the last year. This will be Sibilkova’s first QF at this level. Her QF record is P9 W6 but all at lower grade events.
Azarenka to put a smile on my face.
4 Units @ 1.5
Zapalkova vs Schruff
1 -1 in the head to heads but Zaplkova has won the sole clay encounter. Schruff usually falters badly at this level. She has lost 8 of her last 9 QF and her sole win was against a player ranked in the 400s. Zaplakova has won 7 of her last 10 QF (8 of them WTA events) and 3 of the 4 clay QFs. She beat the useful (on clay at this level) Razzano and Strycova in the last rounds and made the semi finals here on her only other appearance in 2005. Schruff had a good win last round but with her record at the business end doesn’t appeal much. My main concernis fatigure on the past of Zapalkova as she has come through the qualifiers.
Zapalkova 2 Units @ 1.74
Berdych - Volandri
Berdych should have too much for Flip Volandri tomorrow. Won the last 3 meetings (all on clay) and demolished Acasuso last round who was expected to trouble him. Federer was the architect of his won downfall today and Volandri has never gone beyond a Masters QF in 4 efforts with a set count that reads W1 L8. Berdych is 11-3 on clay this season with the defeats to Nadal, Roddick and Youznhy. Volandri in an injury dogged season is 7 – 4 on clay.
Berdych 2 Units @ 1.58
I’d fancy Robredo to be too consistent for Davydenko but its too close at the prices. I liked Chela against Gonzo based on their respective performances today but Gonzalez raises his game when it counts and the split H to H of 3-3 tells how close it is likely to be. Chela never beyond a Masters QF has a tough ask tomorrow and at odds on no appeal.
Ivanovic – Schynder
In Germany schynder leads Ivanovic 4-1 on the H to H and had an excellent win over Hingis today including a 6-0 second set drubbing. Schynder is top 10 on clay which is Ivanovic’s least favourite surface. Schynder is flaky but I’d still make this a coin toss so some small value in the Swiss at what looks like being around 2.3 or 2.4 on BF.
Schynder 1.5 Units @ anything over 2.3