A strange thing happened in the Hamburg Masters last year – neither Nadal nor Federer won! The reason being not that someone played the tennis of their life but rather that neither attended.
Federer had won the title in 2002, 2004 and 2005 but both he and Nadal missed due to injury worries last season. Nadal made the 3rd round on his sole outing back as a 16 year old in 2003. It remains the only clay Masters to elude him and few bookies are even pricing him up for adding to his 6 other clay Masters and 2 slams. The markets are very much betting “without Nadal”.
Bookies pricing the event like this, is probably only forcing many punters into doing what they have been doing on the clay events for a long time – trying to find Nadal’s final opponent.
The seeds in the top ½ are F
ederer, Ljubcic, Djokovic and
Blake.
All is not well in camp Federer. A tame exit to Volandri in Rome and 5 defeats already in 2007 (he had only 6 in the entirety of 2007) show that cracks might be appearing. This is an event as a three time winner you feel he needs to win again to show that Nadal does not own him completely on clay. He has been helped by in my opinion a kind draw both in his quarter and in the 1/2 . Looking down his quarter only Ferrer really jumps out, as a danger. Ferrer has solid Masters credentials on clay (W22 L13) and has two QF appearances from 4 starts at Hamburg. I had another long look at Ferrero. The man has good Masters history on clay (P66 W50) but it is poor in Hamburg. His best days seem behind him although there are signs of a revival .Massu is too injury prone and Hamburg hating. Soderling self combusts too easily. Safin made two finals in Hamburg but hasn’t been beyond the QF in his last 11 Masters starts and his recent Hamburg history is very poor. Losses to the likes of Vliegen and Ramirez Hidalgo are pretty poor. If there are any chinks in Federer’s armour I’m not sure who is setup to exploit them. I cannot see the Swiss not making the SF here.If he is to be threatened I’d have a speculative nibble on Ferrer at 28/1.
In the rest of the ½ Ljubcic had a tame exit to Acasuso in Rome.His Hamburg form is patchy. He made the SF in Hamburg in 2004 but he has had some terrible exits as well. The big Croat’s serve won’t be enough to carry him here and a potential 3rd round clash with either Ferrer or Soderling will probably end his interest here. Even assuming he makes it to the QF Federer lurks, a player whom he has lost his last 9 encounters to.
I would discount Blake almost straight away. Like most American players clay simply is not his surface. He’s never been beyond a QF in a clay Masters and has two first round exits from three Hamburg appearances. A second round exit to a hardly in form Massu last week in Rome pretty much typifies his clay abilities. A bye to the second means he will play either Stepenak or Clement . A tricky second round encounter against most likely Stepanek will probably end his interest.
Djokovic is a more likely seed in this ½. Blake is the other seed and his quarter has a number of players whose form is currently patchy – Stepanek can’t seem to recapture his form of last year and Moya looks spent. Verdasco has the clay smarts but his 2007 form is terrible (Lost last 6) and a clay Masters record of 9-9 doesn’t appeal. He has beaten Djokovic on clay but his form is very suspect. Youznhy played well in Rome but has disappointed on clay Masters W12 L14 and in Hamburg (never beyond QF in 5 attempts). Berdych isW12 L9 on Masters clay but has no Hamburg form and you’d worry whether the Berdych who demolished Montanes, Acasuso will turn up or the one who surrendered tamely to Volabdri last week.
It should be set up for Djokovic to get to the semis but this is only his second Hamburg appearance and clay is not his best surface. He has played an awful lot of tennis in 2007 already and only the weakness of his quarter makes him any appeal at all. I’d want a lot more than the 6s on offer to be tempted. I’d plump for Youznhy on a value basis here especially as he is 2-1 vs Djokovic on H to H and is in decent clay form.
The bottom ½ seeds are N
adal, Davydenko, Gonzalez and last year’s winner
Robredo. It looks a much more competitive ½ than the top ½ but Nadal is lurking like a great white shark there so I’d have to question an outright here. The floaters look more dangerous here as well – top ¼ has Almagro, Acasuso, Calleri, Canas, Chela which will be a tough ask for either Davydenko and Robredo. Anyone of those could contest the SF with a few breaks. None of the floaters has the solidity of either Robredo or Davydenko. Davydenko has both current form (gallant SF exit to Nadal in Rome) and Hamburg form (SF 06, QF 05). Robredo is defending points to keep himself in the top 10 so will want nothing for motivation but his 06 win was in a weakened field and he has been off the boil since early 2007. Davydenko’s 14s looks very skinny when you consider he will have to play Nadal and also when you consider recent retirements.
Nadal’s quarter of the draw contains Gonzalez who will be annoyed in the extreme to be lumped with the Spanish whizz again. Gaudio is tragically out of form, Melzer has no pedigree at this level and Bagdhdatis is not a clay courter. Gasquet made the final here in 2005 and has solid Masters form on clay (W15 L8) but can you really see him troubling Nadal? He has taken sets of him back in 2005/2004 but Nadal is only getting better.
Waiting for prices but using
Stan James as a tissue I’m thinking the QF draw will be.
Federer (13/8) vs Ferrer (28/1)
Youznhy (33/1) vs Berdych (20/1)
Robredo (25/1) vs Davydenko (14/1)
Gasquet (14/1) Nadal (no betting)
Despite Federer’s “slump” (if you could call it that) given his strong history here you’d have to say that 13/8 for making the final are reasonable odds. Bottom ½ of the draw you are relying on Nadal slipping up which makes the quotes on the bottom ½ look very skimpy. Hoping that Federer might indeed have some problems to me seems the better option (if like me you can't keep your money in your pocket ). Younznhy has good h to h against both Berdych and Ferrer.
Ferrer (28/1 or above)
Youznhy (33/1 or above)
Berdych (26/1 or above)