[Wittmann 44]

Moya – Fish

Moya’s glory days are well past but this is as kind an opener as he could want. Fish has only been beyond the first round once in five Masters competitions and his current form is very suspect with a loss to a woefully out of form Gaudio his most recent effort. He is 2-2 in H to H with Moya but didn’t get a set in their sole clay meeting. Fish scratched from the doubles last week in Rome with an illness and might not be fully fit here.

2 Units Moya @ 1.37

Melzer vs Waske

Austrian Melzer outside of Masters events has a fairly respectable clay court record – (8 ATP SFs and a number of challenger titles) but a truly a terrible Masters record – on clay has lost the last 7 but all to much better players than Waske. He made the QF in Hamburg in 2004 and 4 of his losses have been to top 25 players. Waske has made three appearances in Hamburg and suffered 3 first round exits. He is building a nice little doubles career but suffered a first round exit today so might be more focused than usual on the singles. I’m always reluctant to oppose the hometown player but the veteran Waske will find this hard going. Melzer has beaten him indoor on both carpet and hardcourt which are Wakse’s favourite surfaces. Melzer with reduced stakes.

1.5Units Melzer @ 1.59

Soderling vs Ferrer

Soderling holds a 4-0 h to h over Ferrer including a win on clay in Switzerland last year. Sets wise he is W8 L1 against the Spaniard including a tie break win in Dubai that he won on the 24th point. Soderling prefers faster surfaces and laboured against Ginepri who has done nothing this year. Ferrer however equally laboured against Bjorkman . Their records for the year are almost identical 24-10 Ferrer , 24-9 Soderling. With those and the H to H you’d have to price this evens .Ferrer is however defending quality points from last season here and I think he might do enough to raise his game. His Hamburg record is ok (W6 L4) and last year he also tanked in Rome before going on his run to the QF here.

2 Units Ferrer @ 1.75

Of the others-

Ljubcic main weapon – his big serve is neutralised a lot on clay. In Serra he faces a player who took him to 3 sets on clay in their only meeting in Monter Carlo last year. He has a very poor loss to Acasuso in Rome and at the price (1.66) I’d have to swerve. Serra makes no appeal however as he muddled qualifying against Zverev and the win against Bollelli was as much about the Italians failings. I might lay Ljubes 2-0 sets if I cna get a nice price somewhere.

Schuettler is in terminal decline but Benneteau is not in form and odds of 1.4 don’t tempt. I think Volandri might suffer a letdown after his Rome heroics but Murray has never done me any favors betting wise and there are injury concerns over the Scot. Youznhy is too short against Mayer – a lot of tennis played and the German is at home.