[Wittmann 44]

Mathieu’s been playing well this year. Semi in Barcelona and won in Casablanca. Came through qualifiers here so will be acclimatised better than Gonzalez. His first service stats were very poor in the qualifiers though – less than 50% in his 3 games. Leads Gonzo 3-2 including two wins this year. Gonzalez beat him in straight sets in Hamburg in 2005. I’d probably bet him if it wasn’t for the service stats. He dropped a set to a player ranked 302 in the first qualifying round. Gonzalez was brilliant and awful sometimes within the same game in Rome. He is a streaky player and he has followed final appearances in the past with some good runs.

I can’t see Mauresmo in trouble here. This is one of her favourite events. She’s won it twice and a finalist another three times. Vakulenko beat her last week but she’s a better player on clay than Stosur. The H to H are 5-0 against her and the total games are 61-21 against her. Prior to beating Schiavone. Stosur has a decent serve for WTA and Rome is the fastest of the clay events but even with that I’d be amazed if she nicked a set.

If any of the big guns are vulnerable today it might be Kuznetsova. She plays Italian Santagelo after a drawn out final in Berlin. She played with a thigh strapping for some of the event and pulled from the doubles. Santangelo has two noteworthy scalps this year in Petrova on clay and Jankovic on hardcourt both at odds of nearly 8 to 1. MIght be worth a nibble with the intention of laying some back at shorter odds if the Italian looks anyway threatening.