
23-05-2007, 22:55
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Apr 2007
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Re: Tennis 21st - 27th (ATP Austria, WTA Istanbul and Strasbourg)
QF stage tomorrow in Austria, Strasbourg and Istanbul
In Austria Davydenko is surprisingly long against Monaco (1.4). I've mentioned the Russians excellent record here and he is also applying for Austrian citizenship so will want to make a good impression. I have the feeling something is going on behind the scenes in this one as I would make him shorter to beat Monaco so I'm going to leave this one alone as being slightly off.
Hewitt should easily see off Hartfield but he's too low for me to get involved.
There will be a real test for Monfils against Roddick tomorrow. The H to H are 2-1 for A-Rod but Monfils won the sole clay match in Rome last year. There is no way the young Frenchman is playing at that level at the moment but his service game seems in good nick and he might make things tricky for the American.
1 Unit Monfills @ 3.20
0.5 Units Roddick 2-1 @ 4.5
In the final match I'm surprised at the odds against quoted on Montanes to beat Horna. Victory against Ljubcic aside Horna has been in poor form the last few months. If you take the South American clay out of it his record this year is abysmal with R1 and R2 here the first time he has won 2 in a row since July 2006. He has had back problems and Montanes is in a decent run of form at the moment himself. H to H (both clay) are 1 apiece but one is ancient and the other was decided on a retirement. Horna is serving very well (10 aces R 1 and 5 in R2) but I still think Montanes can needle him here.
1 Unit Montanes @ 2.44
In Strasbourg I will be on Medina Garrigues to beat Li. The price has yet to stabilise on Betfair but I will take anything over 1.80. Garrigues beat Li in Cahrleston last month in a tigt two setter and her recent clay form has been excellent with some solid wins and some close defeats to players the likes of Jankovic and Kuznestsova. Garrigues made the final here in 2005 and has an excellent QF record on clay - she is W15 L3 and bar her two recent defeats to V.WIlliams and Hantchova had won her previous 12 QF on clay. Li is decent on clay but she has not Garrigues experience which should provide the edge here.
2 Units Garrigues anything over 1.80
I was hoping that Vesnina's superior clay skills will surmount her recent poor run when she plays Bartoli. She beat her 6-1, 6-1 in the second round here last year and beat her on indoor hard in their only other meeting. Bartoli has never made the transition to clay very well and likes a faster surface. She is a wretched W1 L3 in QF on clay. Vesnina is 6-4 although she has lost all 5 of her WTA QF appearnaces so I'm still weighing this one. The fact Vesnina barely sereved 50% in her last two games has probably tipped the balance against her.
In Turkey Rezai caused a major shock by beating Venus Williams today and that has influenced her quote of 1.59 against American veteran Shaugnessy. I don't see this as a realistic price. Shaughnessy is reasonable on clay at this level and has been playing well recently. She beat Mirza in the first round and Rezai has been having a shocking 2007 , going on a dreadful run of W5 L 12 this year. Clay is definitely her best surface and I would make her favorite here but I can see it being closer than the prices are showing.
1 Unit Risked Lay Rezai @ 1.6
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