[mrmuzeman]

I was speaking to Jez about this hand yesterday so ill just say what I said then. Tbh I think this is a kind of break even type bluff this one ish. On the turn its clear hes has something good, it just depends how good.

His normal range (disregarding 10% zomg factor which of course cant be disregarded, paradox there) is AQ for top pair, AA, KK for overpairs or QQ, JJ for the sets. He did hammer it up from out the SB remember so its gona be a quality holding.

So it just comes down to what sort of player he is. Against a donk this river bluff is seriously non profitable cos the donk would hardly fold ever. If hes a smart regular who you know to be a decent player then hes folding the top pairs and overpairs but calling with the sets. I dont think even a 'good' player is gona find a fold with the set there.

A river diamond is the fcuking ticket here though if hes got a top notch hand cos hed likely actually even lead into you which would have been sweet. So I think flop and turn are absolutely fine.

Its just for this bluff on this board to work he does have to fold more than half the time otherwise there is just no point (bluffing 330 to win 330). I reckon you get 60% folds out of 'good' players (fold AQ, AA, KK), 40% folds from 'ok/avg' players (fold AQ and KK) and probably 20% folds (AQ) from 'donks' so meh. Thats my crude math on it anyway. The majority of players on 3/6 would take up the first 2 categories there which results in 50% folds so = break even play for me.