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Old 22-07-2007, 00:23
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Re: The Open - 19th July

Harrington could be the value in that market - Els is most likely of the -3s to win because he is prob the only one who could realistically go out and shoot a -6 tomorrow, but he seems a bit hot and cold at the mo so it would either be a stonking round or something like +1, whereas Harrington has looked really steady this week - he's not about to go out and shoot 67 or better I don't think but he is saving pars superbly, creating quite a few birdie chances and should knock out a safe -1 to -3 tomorrow which would prob make that 7/1 a bit big.

Mmmm ok final day 2balls - looking for inexperienced but talented players who don't get these chances too often vs experienced, big reputation players who have lost interest, brit players down the list vs rotw players(support round the course will keep them going), and consistent players vs up and down players(who could be affected once definately out of the hunt for the big places. Weather looks ok for tomorrow. Not all of these matched.

Harrington v Cink @ 1.96 - Harrington is playing really well this week, swinging nicely and getting himself out of trouble consistently well. But for a day 2 blip on 18 he's been steady, and seems to be enjoying himself again, and with the crowds supporting him and a good finish in prospect he should smile his way round to a good score today.

Broadhurst v Els @ 3.40 - Price just seems a touch big here. The way I see it Broadhurst should shoot another slow, steady round, probably around -1 as he always does. Els will shoot either something like a -5 or a +1 - all depends on how well he starts, as he always seems to maintain momentum recently, regardless of whether its positive or negative, continuing to miss fairways if he starts to do so, or continuing to drain 20 foot putts if he drops a few. Whatever, I don't see his round being steady and since he could go either way I'll take Broadhurst there.

Jimenez v Weir @ 2.30 - Mmm again the Euro golfers should get the support round the course today - Jimenez has been off form coming into this but has been swinging well this week, and again seems to be enjoying his week. I always think that's important in the final round when players can either put themselves under too much pressure or allow a couple of bad holes to get to them, and either way I don't think MAJ should be the underdog in this one.

JJ Henry v Marcus Brier @ 2.02 - Brier has had a great week but he has been slightly erratic, lurching from an opening 68 to a 75 and then back to 70, while JJ has shot fairly uneventful(barring his triple today) rounds of 71 71 and 70. I don't see any reason why he can't go out and repeat, and I'm happy with odds against that Brier won't sustain his good run this week.

Westwood v Goosen @ 2.20 - Westwood is another that is really enjoying his week, playing well, and getting loads of support from the gallery. Goosen on the other hand has smiled about once, and if he's lingering in mid table after a few holes there's a big chance he could get disinterested given that he's more used to being in the limelight at the top. His bogey-bogey-bogey finish yesterday might just hint at things to come.

Poulter v WJ Lee @ 1.66 - Poulter was v angry at finishing double bogey bogey bogey and undoing all the good work of his front 9 yesterday, and is desparate for a good finish. He'll be 100% concentrated from first tee to last and I think he'll repeat yesterday's performance minus a few of the mistakes at the end.
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