[allthethings]

2005
First leg home: 2-2-3, 10-12 goals
First leg away: 0-0-3, 0-7 goals

The two winners were Anorthosis 3-1 over Trabzonspor, Artmedia 5-0 over Celtic. Note that the other 5 games had a goal differential of 2-11.

2004
First leg home: 0-3-4, 7-17 goals
First leg away: 0-1-2, 3-5 goals

More like 2006, but 4 draws...it looks as though 2006 is the anomalous year, the least competitive of the three. Still, the total over three years:

First leg home: 2-6-12, 20-42 goals
First leg away: 0-2-9, 4-24 goals

...shows that home-field advantage for the underdogs is still very slight, and it's very tough for these teams on the road.

What does this mean for tomorrow? Three first-round survivors play on the road: Elfsborg @ Debreceni -0.5 +108, Zeta @ Glasgow -2 -156, Sarajevo @ Genk -1.5 +102. Under the circumstances, I'd say Debreceni is worth taking, with the handicap, at better than evens. Nine of the 11 games over the past three years have been losses, two draws. Genk is a tougher call: just five of the 11 games have been losses by 2+ goals. And just three have been by 3+ goals, meaning that Zeta could be worth plus-money for +2.