[Wittmann 44]

A winner (Moya) and a loser (Williams) last night for a small profit on the day. Good

I’m another on Ferrer for small stakes at a big price so I’m hoping for quite a few things to go my way.

I think Ferrer and Chela are pretty similar as players but Ferrer is a little bit better at what they do – solid baseline play. The overall QF record favors Ferrer similar Chela W18 L27 , Ferrer W25 L16. At Masters and Slams however it is Ferrer W3 L12 and Chela has lost all 9 he has been in which would seem to indicate he doesn’t perform as well on the big stage. Ferrer is currently top 10 in two stats which I think indicate how the game will go – these are return points % earned on first serve (he is 8th) and return points % earned on second serve (he is 1st). Chela’s serve is solid and nothing more. If it starts to flag I think that Ferrer will win fairly comfortably. Even if it drags I still think that Ferrer will prevail – he is W5 L1 in 5 set Slam games (Chela is W3 L7).

Having said all that the match price is wretched and I’ll probably have a single on Ferrer.

I cannot see Moya making it against Djoko. He is playing out of his skin at the moment but as Peter said there are definite motivational questions over Djokos Cincinatti performance. I also think he had a blistering problem in Hamburg. I’ll double check that though.

Hard to see Roddick getting anything from Federer other than more misery despite the presence of Connors and a partisan crowd in his corner. Unless Fed needs the practice this could be 3-0 very easily.
Davydenko should see off Haas – Tommy has had two gruelling 5 setters and even if he leads the h to h I just can’t forget some poor patches in the earlier games. Dodgy Russian in 4.

Federer - Davydenko
Djokovic - Ferrer