Quote:
Originally Posted by Wittmann 44
Even within the odds bracket of 1.5 and greater for the winning player (i.e not complete mismactches) of the 40 that won the first set 32 went on to win (and 2 of the 8 wins were by retirement). You might say that is still a 5/1 shot that she will lose after winning a set 6-0 and I will grant you that but a supposed top 10 player like Bartoli shouldn't lose a game from that position.
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Do you happen to know the prices that were available to lay the players that won the first set 6-0 in those games though? You say Bartoli dropped to 1.04, was that at the end of the first set? That's 24/1 (I think
), if that's the normal kind of price available on a player after winning the first set 6-0, and if the stats suggest it's a 5/1 shot, then I still think there could be something in laying players who win the first set 6-0.
Might try looking into it a bit more closely next year.
Edit - OK, just seen your other reply now.