Just took a look at the h2h between Fed and Gonzalez, Roger leads 10:0
But most of the games have been close affairs.
2007 Australian Open
Australia Hard F Federer 7-6(2) 6-4 6-4
Stats
2006 Basel
Switzerland Carpet F Federer 6-3 6-2 7-6(3)
Stats
2006 ATP Masters Series Madrid
Spain Hard F Federer 7-5 6-1 6-0
Stats
2006 ATP Masters Series Canada
Toronto, Canada Hard S Federer 6-1 5-7 6-3
Stats
2006 ATP Masters Series Monte Carlo
Monaco Clay S Federer 6-2 6-4
Stats
2005 Wimbledon
England Grass Q Federer 7-5 6-2 7-6(2)
Stats
2005 Roland Garros
France Clay R32 Federer 7-6(11) 7-5 6-2
Stats
2005 ATP Masters Series Monte Carlo
Monaco Clay R16 Federer 6-2 6-7(3) 6-4
Stats
2004 Hamburg AMS
Germany Clay R16 Federer 7-5 6-1
Stats
2004 Indian Wells AMS
California, USA Hard R32 Federer 6-3 6-2
Stats
I don't know what to expect from that match, I like Federer most aces, but it's priced 1.16
Gonzalez +4.5 games @2.12 looked fair to me, but if the first set is close and Fed win it, then Gonza could break and lose the second badly.