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Re: Rugby- Heineken Cup 2007/08
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It's pretty much as you were at the head of the betting for this season's Heineken Cup after wins for Gloucester, Leicester and Stade Francais last weekend. The only side out of the top four in the market to lose was Toulouse but this wasn't a shabby effort as they ran Leicester close at Welford Road and earned a precious bonus point in the process.
Gloucester were probably the most impressive side last weekend when they produced a scintillating performance to beat Bourgoin in France 31-7. This has seen them leap to the head of the market with most firms, with only Stan James and Boylesports not having them favourites in some shape or form.
Most of the high street firms cannot separate Gloucester, Stade and Toulouse with both the Tote and Coral making them 5/1 joint-favourites. This could all change of course this weekend, as things turn on there head and we have the reverse fixtures of last weekend. Hence, Toulouse get the chance to get their revenge on Leicester at the Stade Ernest Wallon and if they can prevent the Tigers from getting a losing bonus point (if indeed they win) then it will be job done from their perspective.
Every pool is still up for grabs at the moment with the exception of Pool 1, where London Irish have been in grand form and the fourteen points they have already got will go a long way to ensuring they progress into the last four. This weekend's fixture at Perpignan will be tough, but if they can get a losing bonus point then this will put them in a very strong position to top that particular group.
As we saw last weekend, rain and wind can play havoc with rugby games and punters need to keep a very close eye on the weather forecast before they have a bet on any of the games this weekend. Half of last weekend's matches yielded under 40 points, with three of those taking place on Sunday when the weather was appalling. It may seem like a banal thing to say but so often punters forget this and it can eat into profits.
Friday's action kicks-off with Ulster hosting Ospreys at Ravenhill. Ulster's season has been nothing short of a disaster and they are already pretty much out of this competition as it is. Their home form - which once set them apart in this competition - has deserted them both in the Celtic League and this tournament and they will do well to finish the pool stages with their heads held high. The Ospreys have beaten Ulster and Bourgoin so far in this group but lost to Gloucester at Kingsholm in November. They have played very well so far and will want to keep this up as their crunch showdown against the Cherry and Whites looms ever closer. It'll be a tough task to overhaul the Heineken Cup favourites from their top spot but a win against Ulster here would set the ball rolling and with the Irish province currently in disarray, then this may not be a tough assignment. The Ospreys ran out comfortable winners last weekend and there's no reason why they cannot do the double over Ulster this weekend.
Friday's other encounter sees Biarritz take on Glasgow at the Parc des Sports Aquilera and the French side will be looking for revenge after the Scottish side beat them in appalling conditions at Firhill last Sunday. The Warriors eventually ran out the 9-6 winners of the game, with rain restricting try-scoring opportunities for each side and although Biarritz made a valiant effort to run in a try in the last five minutes, conditions meant that knock-ons were inevitable and the initial favourites for this group now have a battle on their hands to top pool 4. However, although Glasgow defended very well on Sunday, I would be hugely surprised if they could repeat the dose on Friday night and with stakes now higher than they've ever been for Biarritz in the Heineken Cup, a good performance is imperative to get their campaign back on track. The layers are unlikely to be giving anything away on Biarritz this weekend but I cannot see them losing and although Glasgow are much improved this season, Biarritz will have one eye on a try-scoring bonus point and although conditions may spoil this ambition, if all is calm then I could see Biarritz throwing the ball around to achieve this.
Saturday's action kicks-off at the Arms Park where Cardiff take on Stade Francais with the Welsh side needing a win to keep tabs on their rivals at the head of Pool 3. Stade ran out the 12-6 winners at a rain-soaked Stade Jean Bouin last Sunday and as with most games over the weekend, the conditions were more suited to kicking rather than running rugby and hence there were some pretty low-scoring affairs. If the French side manage to win this - and there's no reason that they shouldn't - then they would be in pole position to top this pool. However, if Cardiff were to cause an upset, which wouldn't be a huge surprise, then this would blow Pool 3 wide open and any one of Bristol, Cardiff and Stade could top it. However, with conditions set for calm but cold, this could well play into the hands of the French, who are a cracking running rugby side on their day and should get on Cardiff's heels from the start and put them under pressure. The layers may well make it a choice match but I think that that's giving Cardiff a little too much respect and I would be a backer of Stade to win this match at 4/5 or bigger. I just think they're a class apart on their day and although the Blues have home advantage, Stade should have too much firepower for them.
Saturday's fixture in Pool 1 sees the Dragons taking on Treviso at Rodney Parade where the Italian side will be looking to build on the promising performance last weekend that saw them run the Welsh province to within two points over in Italy. Dragons coach Paul Turner will be looking for back to back victories over Trevsio here but he knows his side cannot afford to underestimate the Italians and there doesn't seem to me much chance of this happening after last weekend's result. However, although the Dragons should win this, both of these sides have little chance of troubling London Irish and Perpignan at the top of this group. Treviso shouldn't be underestimated here and I wouldn't want to back the Dragons giving up any more than ten or so points but they should win the game nonetheless.
Viadana currently prop up Pool 4 and probably won't get much respite this Saturday afternoon when pool leaders Saracens roll into town. Sarries have been in good form in the Heineken Cup and have been given a great chance to take the initiative in Pool 4 with Biarritz's defeat at the hands of Glasgow last weekend and a bonus point here would give them a great chance going into their game against Biarritz in January. Alan Gaffney's men were unlucky losers in the south of France and if they carry this form into that game after Christmas, then they could well get through to the quarter-finals of this competition. Hence, they will definitely be looking for a bonus point here and should get it, as Jim Love's men have never won a game in Heineken Cup history. I'm sure that will change at some point, but at the moment I'm almost 100% certain that that will not happen this weekend.
Pool 2's big game of the weekend sees Gloucester take on Bourgoin at Kingsholm, safe in the knowledge that a win here should pretty much ensure that they top this group. The Cherry and Whites have a 100% record in this competition so far and showed last weekend with a 31-7 win over their opposition here that they've pretty much got them mastered so the layers will be making Dean Ryan's men heavy favourites. Nevertheless, this can be when sides start to get a bit complacent but Bourgoin don't have the greatest record away from home in this competition and with their reputation of not exactly exerting themselves in the latter stages of the pools, then Gloucester may not have to be at their best to win this one. Bourgoin's last win on the road came back in 2002 against Sale Sharks (and some wags in the crowd may be suggesting it was the last time they tried) and although the French side have plenty of talent in their squad, for me it would be the biggest shock of this weekend if Gloucester failed to win this one.
Edinburgh take on Leinster at Murrayfield on Saturday afternoon and the Irish side know that a win here would do their chances of qualifying the world of good as only two points separates themselves from Leicester and Toulouse at the top of the table. Michael Cheika's men should go second with a win here, given that Toulouse and Leicester are playing each other, and with games against the big two left to come, Leinster need all the points they can muster here if they are to have a chance of qualifying for the knockout stages for the fourth time on the trot. The Irish side are likely to be favourites here and are worthy ones at that but Edinburgh always put one good performance in during the Heineken Cup and this match may be the time where they come good. Andy Robinson's men are not in the same sort of form that they were at the beginning of last season but there have been signs that it's beginning to come together for them and given that they ran Leinster to fourteen points last weekend, the 2/7 currently available looks relatively short. Leinster should win this given all that is at stake but they are unlikely to be much value at this stage.
The crunch clash in Pool 1 sees Perpignan try and exact revenge on leaders London Irish after last weekend's win for the Exiles at the Madejski Stadium. The Stade Aime Giral is the venue this weekend and a win for London Irish here would make them virtually uncatchable at the top of the pool. However, Perpignan will try their hardest to make sure that this doesn't happen and although their away form in this tournament (especially in England) is not much to write home about, they have a very good home record and this should stand them in good stead this weekend. They haven't lost at this stadium since 2004 and will not want to ruin that recordhere. Irish's victory last weekend made it three from three for the competition so far but this represents their toughest task so far and they will have play some fine rugby if they are to overturn Perpignan here. Although it's not impossible, a victory in deepest darkest France could just be beyond the Exiles at the moment and a win for Perpignan here would put them right back in contention for this competition. Although 1/3 is not a working man's price, it looks pretty fair in this context.
Saturday's action closes with a tricky tie between Wasps and Clermont at Adams Park and one which will decide which side has a chance of progressing through to the knockout stages of this competition. If Clermont manage to win, then they will be in a very strong position to qualify, as they still have a home game against Munster to come which is one that they would fancy themselves in. However, Wasps are favourites for this game and have an enviable record at home in the Heineken Cup, having won their last nine games at the Wycombe venue. The reigning champions just failed to get a losing bonus point against Clermont last weekend in controversial circumstances and will be looking to put the record straight, though they do need a win at least to stay in the hunt for qualification. Their previous form in this competition suggested that they were possible winners but last weekend's defeat has led to doubts in certain circles whether they can repeat the heroics of last season. Seeing as we've backed Clermont ante post, I would love to see a Clermont victory here and it's not beyond the realms of possibility. However, Wasps do look strong at home and my head has to go with Ian McGeechan's men here. Nevertheless, I'm sure Clermont will be happy with a bonus point if they lose, so that will surely be the aim if they find themselves on the wrong end of the scoreline with minutes to play. This could go all the way to the wire.
Pool 5 kicks-off Sunday's action, where Munster take on Llanelli at Thomond Park where the Irish province will be looking to consolidate their position at the top of the pool having beaten the Scarlets at Stradey Park a week ago. The Scarlets have yet to get a point in this season's Heineken Cup and although they have a very good record when it comes to qualifying for the knockout stages of this competition, they won't be doing so this season and all but mathematically out of this year's renewal. I don't think that there is any doubt that Munster will win this game and it is entirely up to the Scarlets whether they do so with a bonus point victory or not. A lot will depend on conditions in Ireland but the kicking boots of Ronan O'Gara will once again be crucially important to this result.
The Memorial Ground is the venue for Bristol's clash with Harlequins on Sunday afternoon and Bristol fans will be hoping that their side can recreate the atmosphere of their last home game in the Heineken Cup where they produced a fantastic performance in difficult conditions to overcome tournament favourites Stade Francais. With the exception of their draw against Cardiff, Quins have found it hard going in this competition so far but they have hardly disgraced themselves and although they are bottom, it could have been a different story if one or two decisions had gone their way. Quins are now effectively out of this tournament but Bristol are genuine contenders to qualify so they will have to favourites on Sunday, given that they are likely to be very fired up for this match. Bristol have been performing well at home so far this season whilst Quins have an appalling record away from the Stoop in the Heineken Cup and have not won since beating Bridgend way back in 2001. All in all, Bristolshould win this match and win it well, though the west country has had a lot of rain in the past week or so and it could be the same story again - weather conditions could make it difficult for the teams to get points on the board.
The Heineken Cup action for 2007 closes, quite fittingly, at the Stade Ernest Wallon where two of Europe's biggest clubs go head to head in a Pool 6 match which should be a belter.
Toulouse host Leicester on Sunday knowing that, whilst they got a losing bonus point last weekend, they need a win here to keep the pressure on both Leinster and the Tigers at the top of the table. Last weekend 's match was predictably tight and this one should be no different, although I would be slightly more worried about Leicester's ability to produce the goods away from home. If Toulouse can win here and stop Leicester from getting a bonus point, then they will regard this as job done, but Leicester will have one eye on producing an upset here, so Guy Noves' men cannot afford to take their eye off the ball. The French side have not been at their best in this competition over the past couple of years, but there are signs that they are ready to build on this and their performances over the past few games suggest that they are nearing their best once more. Leicester will fight hard here and it will be predictably close, but I've just got a sneaking feeling that Toulouse have a little more up their sleeves and they should win this by a six or more - Leicester may not get the bonus point they want.
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