Thread: 64s v 2 all-ins
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Old 19-12-2007, 10:44
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Re: 64s v 2 all-ins

In this actual case (vs AQd and 99) your 64h has a 21% chance of winning. So if were talking purely about the math of it (which we're not cos this is a tourny not a cash game and surviving through folding is just as or more important) you need to get a 4/1 payoff to make it 'worthwhile' to call. Are you? Youre putting in 1260 more to win 3720, so thats about 3/1, eg - a long term guaranteed losing play.

If they had AK and AJ or just both Ax like you thought (I dont know why AT ALL you wouldnt think 1 of them had a pocket pair 77-AA though) then you would be between a 33% and 38% chance to win the pot depending on what sort of Ax they had and if it was suited etc. So in this scenario yes you would be getting the odds to call in a pure math sense as youve a 2/1ish chance of winning and are being piad 3/1. Imo that really and totally doesnt matter though because I think youre facing a decent pocket pair from 1 of them a majority of the time and then youre fcuked oddswise as you saw above.

PLUS even if you were getting a bit of value in that Ax scenario just folding and retaining your chips is much the better play. Just calling off all your chips with a 62-67% chance of exiting the game isnt the best tournament survival strategy I would say.

The only part you got right in this hand I think is the second call when theres a small reraise for 80 more. Theres a ton of money in the pot and lots of players so worth it. The original call for 60 is totally marginal and not worth bothering with but not awful or anything but I wouldnt bother tbh. The all in call was pretty horrendous truth be told.
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