Nadal had played a nearly 4 hour game against Moya the previous day. It was the longest 3 set game in nearly 16 years so I wouldn’t read too much into his thrashing by Youznhy. I don’t think he will win the Oz Open either but I wouldn’t be writing him off based on yesterday.
You seem to have changed your mind about Federer. Last year I seemed to remember you saying he was finished .
I think 1.65 is poor value personally. The Australian Open is probably the most competitive of the Opens and there are lots of dangermen this year (Murray, Nalbandian, Djokovic and maybe even Gasqeut).
I’ll be looking for e/w value in the other ½ of the draw.