[crowie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Agreed crowie - I probably should have stated my thoughts a little better - it's probably the title that's misleading. There's no doubt that in obscure leagues information is still king - bookies knowledge can be patchy, team news can be hard to come by etc so there is definately an edge there, one that can(as you have pointed out) be taken advantage of consistently.

I'm more preoccupied thinking about the big leagues here - no better example than the premiership, where Rooney's every twinge is reported all across the media probably before it even happens. Every punter can call upon every peice of relevant form, team news, game report, fan opinion etc within seconds, and quickly form a set of fairly decent prices, which taken across a large sample which these markets are, IMO leave very little value to be had based on that info.

So the title should really have been something like 'EPL/Primera Liga/Whatever - where is the edge?'

I personally don't think there is any one bit of information or trend or stat that is being missed by everyone nowadays and which maybe you have access to which will give you an edge.

I don't even think, for leagues like the EPL, that there is a small band of punters who are better informed than everyone else. You could therefore say there is no "edge" to be gained in these leagues?


If you go back to your original post about the wisdom of the crowd then I would say that the Betfair market prices are pretty much an accurate as you can get in pricing up any well punted football game.


If that is the case your going to get an edge, pricewise, either by getting a better price than what Betfair says is the correct price by betting elsewhere, which as you well know can be done most weekends by simply scanning price comparison sites (I have only had 40 bets more at Betfair than Pinnacle this season). There is a good chance that there is someone out there thats pricing better for a particular game.


Or you dispense with the whole "I have to get an edge" arguement completely and go with what your opinion says. Which is effectively what value is, isn't it, just your opinion on a game/price? There is no definitive mathematical formula to accurately predict a price in a football game because there is always a human element involved. The best you can do is make an opinion, a judgement on the game and if your right more often than your wrong you should be a winner.


After all Betfair is basically your opinion against someone elses.


You see a game, you think team x will win, you think 2.00 is an acceptable price to back them at, you do so. Just because hundreds of punters are willing to lay team x at 2.00 doesn't mean they are right and you are wrong. Because just as sure as there will be hundreds of punters saying I think team x is a lay at 2.00 then there will be also hundreds saying team x is a back at 2.00. In the end it will come down to how good your judgement is of the teams involved.


I think I am going round in circles now but I also think you are searching for a "holy grail" which doesn't actually exist in EPL (or heavily punted leagues) terms to be honest. I don't think there is anything different out there that one or another of us hasn't considered at any one time.

If there is though, and you find it, drop me a PM