I probably didn’t explain myself very well and didn’t make enough of a distinction between exchanges and bookies. The fact that there might not be any edge does not mean people might not be making money in the short to medium term through a combination (in varying measures) of luck, good judgement, early price taking and arbing or quarbing.
Longer term I would stand over my claim that
most people are not making money on the major leagues (at either bookies or exchanges although I would hazard an unsupported guess that more make money on the exchanges). The average punter loses 13% at a bookies , a figure which is pretty much universal. A small minority of punters lose massive %s and a small number make some money (some more than others). I would think that the better punters do not generally make their money in oversaturated markets like the EPL. Again I have no empirical way of proving that but for the reasons you yourself have mentioned above I think that leagues like the EPL are the worst places to pick a fight with the bookies.
I think 16% is an exceptional performance but having said that 382 bets though it seems a lot I would still argue doesn’t necessarily mean a lot. Joe Buchdahl’s book I think cites a figure of at least 1,000 bets before any measure of statistical significance can be inferred. If they kept that up for another 2 years I would be convinced as opposed to being slightly sceptically impressed.
The most famous tennis betting site On the punt made money consistently for over two years and a few hundred bets with yields of nearly double figures (without betting at
Betfair). They went subscription over 18 months ago and the wheels promptly came off and have not gone back on. I don’t know was it the added pressure or what but they are well on the way to losing everything they had built up.
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I do think it comes back to is your opinion better than others. If you think that practically everyone is working off the the same info, stats and trends then it does come down to opinions and judgement.
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I agree, especially in markets where there is very little hidden information. In the long run I think in a market with full information if you consistently make a profit you are probably (maybe without even knowing it) value betting every time you make a selection.