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Re: 24-27th Jan: African Cup Of Nations - 2nd Group Games
Egypt and Cameroon on the handicaps are VERY generous offers IMHO.
Egypt -1.5 is a bit of a low handicap. The fair handicap IMHO would be -2.25, because Egypt is effective upfront, Sudan is midiocre in ther defence, and -most of all- Egypt traditionally produces big wins over Sudan. The last couple of games were in the Germany 2006 qualifying group and Egypt won 3-0 in Khartoum and 6-1 in Cairo.
Also in the Arab games in Cairo in 2007 Egypt won by 4-1 eventhough Sudan was represented by the Olympic tem and Egypt were represented by domestic players + Hossam Ghaly
In fact I don't remember when was the last time Egypt could not win over Sudan by at least 3 goals margin.
Egypt should also have a full squad with skipper Ahmad Hassan having served his 2nd of a 2 games ban vs Cameroon, which means he will be available for Shehata as well. In fact, Shehata put it beste when he said "my problem is 11 players will start, but I have 12 others and I cannot exactlt call them reserves". With the likes of Abu Treika, Ibrahim Saeed & El Mohammadi Saleh kept on the bench vs Cameroon (though Abu Treika & Salej took parts later on) and Hassan now available, Egypt have a luxury that's rarely ever available for any national squad in a major tournament.. ROTATION.
I'm not sure -yet- whom will be the starting XI, but I know Egypt can actually change up to 6 starters without affecting the overall performance (and by "can" I mean ability not possibility, as noone actually knows how Shehata thinks until he does announce the actual starting line-up)
As Sudan's best stars (ex: Faisal Ajab) failed to deliver, the coach Mazda has decided to exclude both Ajab & Mujahed Muhammad from the game against Egypt because they were very poor and disappointing in the 1st game.
The 1st game though will feature Cameroon vs Zambia, and the bookies made a BIG mistake in offering only -0.75 on Cameroon. It could be easily -2 and I would still back Cameroon.
The Lions did NOT appear bad against Egypt. EGYPT was fabulous which made them look limited only in comparison, but it certainly does not mean they are not one of the strongest squads in Ghana.
Now with their backs to the wall they will fight like the lions they are, and Zambia simply does not have what it takes to stop them.
Zambia on the other hand were overrated after they won 3-0, but the fact is Sudan could have scored 2-3 goals easily had they just concentrated in their finishing.
Now if Sudan can create that many chances against Zambia, how many chances would you expect Cameroon to create? And poor finishing is certainly something you would not be acusing Cameroon strikers of, would you?
Suffice it to say, Egypt should easily cover the -1.5 handicap, while I would be really disappointed and surprised if cameroon doesn't win by at least 3 goals a margin.
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