Determined to get this working so i've turned to the RACING+FOOTBALL OUTLOOK [a weekly sports betting newspaper in the uk ] for assistance.
They publish a set of ratings called the OUTLOOK INDEX ,in which the print a set of ratings for each teams performance over a 6 week period .
They include ratings for HOME /AWAY perfromance and a TREND figure which i beleive is based on the strength of opposition they have faced in their league games.
It's those TREND figures i'm interested in .
Basically i mark off the top and bottom 4 rated [ jts inc] and check to see if a team with one of the top positive ratings is playing a team from the bottom 4 negative rated sides.
Last week the matches that fitted the bill were -
leeds v DONCASTER win odds = 4.33 score = 0-1
dag+red v GRIMSBY win odds = 2.25 score = 0-0
morton v QOS win odds = 2.5 score = 0-3
GENOA v atalanta win odds = 2.5 score = 3-2
le mans v BORDEAUX win odds = 2.5 score = 1-2
NAPOLI v lazio win odds = 2.0 score = 2-2
zaragoza V MURCIA win odds = 4.33 score = 3-1
lyon v LORIENT win odds = ? score = 2-0
rennes v NICE win odds = ? score = 1-1
This weeks -
chester v ROTHERHAM win odds = 2.1 score = 0-1
droylsden KIDDERMINSTER win odds = 1.7 score = 1-0
oxford v GRAYS win odds = 2.8 score = 0-0
mallorca v ATH MADRID win odds = 3.0
cagliari v NAPOLI win odds = 2.6
with 2 games to come on SUNDAY we have had 3 games in which a loss would have occured.
The theory in this system is that if a +ve rated side is playing a -ve rated then there should be a good chance of the +ve team gain at least a draw.
The problems are how many teams to have in one bet ? and is it worth betting on teams with D-N-B odds of less than 1.5 or over 3.0 ?
I'll be studying this week-ends results and will be back next week with some bets .
Could ASIAN HANDICAPS be abetter alternative ??
Please feel free to contribute any thoughts
