Okay, i don't bet... But with the Six Nations coming up i figured i'd put on a little wager to make the gamesmore exiting
... Anyhow, after browsing through
sky bet i was intrigued with the many betting options, and i basically need someone to explain to me why i'm an idiot, and why my idea certainly won't work; because i'm too stupid to spot the flaw myself.
Okay here it is right, keep inmind i'm not the best with maths.
The Coca Cola Championship has an average of 27% Away victories.
That gives you 73% chance of winning if you place on Home Win and Draw... With the odds at an average of about(just for this weeks games) 2.30 - 2.60, which to my pseudo betting knowledge means you get 2.5(for the sake of the argument) x the money you gambled, right?
So lets say there is 12 games, and for each game you'll bet on both a home win and a draw... that's 24 bets, with a 73% chance of success, with a return of on average 2.5
In theory then, you can only win one of your two bets. So you've got 12 winners. Then you've got to consider only 75% of your 12 winners will actually win, so you've got 9 winners.
9 winners, 15 losses.
150 units lost.
9 bets won with 10 units on each bet, with a return of 2.5... 225 units won... Which leaves you with a profit of 75 units.
Then you have your lower italian leagues where only 17% of games are won by the away team
Could someone please tear my concept to pieces before i go out and put a giant hole in my bank balance