Woah! 5s on
Betfair!
I suppose when weighing up each songs chances, this one is easy for people - they look and see 2nd place in 2006, they see fairly similar song, they see a weaker field than than year - ergo he should win fairly easily.
As we say though, that ignores a lot of things that aren't so good this year, song, look, and surely a bit of fatigue - same guy, same type of song - only the die hards would bother to vote for that kind of lack of originality.
In the end I dont think the odds will look too stupid, cos he'll surely finish top 4 at worst, but I think that my main argument as to why this wont win is because every year there are hundreds of thousands of people round Europe who decide to watch Eurovision, and have their vote. Ultimately, there's so many of that type of viewer/voter, that the impact of the superfans who hammer away at redial all night isn't that great, and its the 'neutral', undecided voters that really decide who wins.
In 2006 Lordi won because they caught the imagination on the night - I didnt see last years final as I was on holiday but for Central and Eastern Europe it was probably the case with the Serbian song.
And this just doesnt do anything to catch your imagination - it'll get loads of votes from his fans and from Russian expats, but in terms of getting many 'floating' votes, you gotta have your doubts.