[Doc]

Agreed nothing wrong taking shorter odds (or longer) provided there is value, but if you're varying the odds then 'strike rate' becomes somewhat moot.

There is a certain amount of chance in the outcome of every game, so no system can ever be exact, all you can do is seek to minimize the error. I haven't analyzed in detail what the average bookies error is when you compare the handicap to the actual margin, but I know on my 'machine' it is of the order of 7 points. I'll then finesse the predictions with my own thoughts based on information not taken into account by the 'machine' - e.g. is a lineup weak, or is a match extra important for one side but not the other etc. Sometimes that works (e.g. Bath Worcester - machine said Bath by 0.7, but I took Bath -2 - margin was 3 points) and sometimes not - e.g. Leicester-Bristol (Machine said Tigers by 12.1, I went Tigers -20 and margin was 18). In both of those the bookies were closer than the machine, but in others they weren't - e.g. the machine had London Irish by 6.5 (actual margin 7, bookies said 4) or Edinburgh-Leinster (machine had Leinster 1.9) - bookies had Leinster -6 (actual maring was Edinburgh by 2)