Maybe it's just my natural pessimism as a Gills fan, but I really can't see anything other than a Leeds win on Saturday, and I think the price is failing to take into account their appeal against the points deduction.
The verdict on Leeds' appeal is due today at 5pm, and I'd fancy their chances of landing some kind of compromise, maybe 5 points back.
BBC SPORT | Football | My Club | Leeds United | Leeds set to hear points verdict
If that happens, they'll be going for automatic promotion, and there's no way their price is going to be anywhere near as high as the 1.98 currently available on
Betfair.
Add to that Gillingham's terrible away form - 2 points from the last 10 aways, 24 goals conceded in that time, and 2-4-16 for the whole season - and it's hard to see any cause for optimism really.
Overs may also be worth considering, a draw is certainly no good to the Gills, and if Leeds' appeal is successful, it'll be no use to them either, so you'd expect both sides to have to go for goals. Even if they're unsuccessful, they're still the 2nd top scorers in the division, and the Gills have the 2nd worst defence in the division.
There was also an article on a Leeds website last week saying how they'll be glad to relegate us - they don't like our gobby chairman (an irony seemingly completely lost on fans of a club run by Ken Bates
), despite the fact he apparently voted against their points deduction. Still, that's just some of the fans, I can't imagine the players really giving a toss about that.
I've taken 10pts on Leeds @ 1.98